甲醇日评20251205：继续上行空间或有限-20251205

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The upward space of methanol 01 contract is quite limited. The reasons are that the overall profit of downstream MTO is poor, and further increase in methanol price may lead to downstream shutdown and negative demand feedback; downstream restocking willingness is weak due to profit levels and relatively high inventory of MTO enterprises and ports. It is recommended to hold the short put option of 01 contract until expiration and not to chase the rise of 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices (closing prices): MA01 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.70%) to 2113 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.23%) to 2209 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 4 yuan/ton (-0.18%) to 2211 yuan/ton [1]. - Methanol spot prices (daily average prices): Prices in most regions decreased, such as -5 yuan/ton in Taicang (-0.24%), -7.5 yuan/ton in Shaanxi (-0.38%), -10 yuan/ton in Sichuan and Chongqing (-0.46%), while Shandong increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.22%) [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: Prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.43%), 5 yuan/ton (-0.76%), and 5 yuan/ton (-0.76%) respectively [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit increased by 6.3 yuan/ton (2.54%) to 254.4 yuan/ton, while natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at -1160 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit: Profits of MTO in the northwest and east increased by 1.4 yuan/ton (0.58%) and 0.5 yuan/ton (0.06%) respectively; acetic acid profit increased by 24.64 yuan/ton (4.17%), MTBE profit decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-10.94%), and formaldehyde and other products' profits remained unchanged [1]. 3.4 Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak shock, opening at 2128 yuan/ton, closing at 2113 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1.053 million lots and an open interest of 934,600 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1]. - Foreign information: Six methanol plants with a total capacity of 9.9 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are still under maintenance, and the daily methanol output has dropped to 14,400 tons. Attention should be paid to the number of loading ports in December [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy Hold the short put option of 01 contract until expiration [1].