2025年12月5日集运日报：或对2月运价存在乐观情绪，盘面震荡上行，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动-20251205

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has optimistic sentiment towards February freight rates, and the futures market is fluctuating upwards. However, the spot price has slightly decreased. The core factors affecting freight rates are the traditional seasonality and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. The impact of the tariff issue has been marginalized [2][3]. - The market is in a fierce long - short game. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On November 28 and December 1, different freight rate indices showed various trends. For example, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% from the previous period [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1403.13 points on November 28, up 9.57 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In October, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI initial value was 45.9, the service PMI initial value was 51.2, and the composite PMI initial value was 49.7. The Sentix investor confidence index had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2]. - In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In the US, the October S&P Global service PMI initial value was 55.2, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 52.2, and the composite PMI initial value was 54.8 [2][3]. Market Conditions - On December 4, the main contract 2602 closed at 1585.0, with a gain of 3.32%, a trading volume of 27,300 lots, and an open interest of 34,200 lots, a decrease of 786 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to take a small long position in the main contract. Do not add positions when the market dips slightly, and do not hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or take a small - scale attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].