光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日）-20251205

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Firm and volatile [1] - Soda Ash: Bottom - level volatile [1] - Glass: Bottom - level weak volatile [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea: Spot prices are strengthening, supply is falling due to gas - fired plants' maintenance or shutdowns, demand is positive but mid - and downstream acceptance is decreasing. Futures have rebounded and need new positive drivers. Short - term quotes may be firm, but price transmission needs attention [1] - Soda Ash: Spot quotes are stable, industry operation rate and production are increasing, inventory is decreasing, and the mid - and upstream supply pressure is relieved. However, future supply increase and downstream capacity decline expectations exist, and the futures will maintain a low - level volatile trend [1] - Glass: Spot prices are weakly volatile, supply is expected to decline, demand is positive, and inventory is decreasing. But the weak rigid demand limits the demand height, and the futures have digested recent positive factors and will maintain a bottom - level weak volatile trend [1] Group 3: Market Information Summary Urea - On December 4, futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,588 to 9,353, with 770 valid forecasts [4] - On December 4, daily production was 190,600 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from the previous workday and an increase of 8,600 tons from the same period last year. The industry operation rate was 78.81%, 1.7 percentage points lower than last year [4] - On December 4, small - particle urea spot prices in various regions increased, with Shandong at 1,710 yuan/ton (+30), Henan at 1,700 yuan/ton (+10), etc. [4] - As of December 3, enterprise inventory was 1.2905 million tons, a weekly decrease of 73,400 tons (-5.38%) [5] Soda Ash & Glass - On December 4, soda ash futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,259 to 7,535, with 2,012 valid forecasts; glass futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 0 [7] - On December 4, soda ash spot prices varied by region. For example, in North China, light soda was 1,250 yuan/ton and heavy soda was 1,300 yuan/ton [7] - As of December 4, weekly soda ash production was 703,900 tons, a weekly increase of 58,000 tons (+0.82%); capacity utilization was 80.74%, a weekly increase of 0.66 percentage points [7] - As of December 4, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 31,300 tons (-1.99%) from Monday and 48,800 tons (-3.07%) from last Thursday [7] - On December 4, the average price of the float glass market was 1,099 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 2 yuan/ton; daily production was 155,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7] - As of December 4, the inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million weight boxes, a weekly decrease of 2.92 million weight boxes (-4.68%), and an increase of 23.25% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.8 days, a decrease of 0.7 days from last week [8] Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes various charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume, and price difference charts of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the spot price trend charts of urea and soda ash, and the futures price difference charts of urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [10][11][19][21] Group 5: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won many awards [24] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won multiple honors [24] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and has won relevant awards [24]