有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日）-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with the loss on domestic refined copper spot imports widening. The employment market shows resilience, and the expected interest - rate hike by the Bank of Japan may put pressure on global risk assets. LME copper registered warrants are being converted into cancelled warrants, indicating tight LME inventory and a structural problem in global visible inventory. The market sentiment is evolving towards an external squeeze, and the performance may remain strong [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The market's expectation of environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not materialize, and new production and restarting occurred, leading to a correction in the futures market. Aluminum prices have supported demand, but the demand impulse is difficult to sustain, and the upside space depends on the bulls' response to subsequent macro - dynamics [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose slightly, while Shanghai nickel fell slightly. Nickel inventory increased, and the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is weak. In the new - energy industry chain, raw materials are tight, but the production of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. It may be considered to buy at low levels, but beware of macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: In terms of macro, the initial jobless claims decreased significantly, and the Bank of Japan's expected interest - rate hike may impact global risk assets. In terms of inventory, LME, Comex, SHFE, and BC copper inventories all increased. The conversion of LME registered warrants to cancelled warrants indicates a positive outlook for future copper prices [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, AO2601 fell 1.15%, AL2601 rose 0.79%, and AD2601 rose 0.64%. The SMM alumina price fell, and the aluminum ingot spot discount widened. The aluminum rod and aluminum alloy processing fees showed different trends. The lack of expected environmental production restrictions led to a correction in the market, and the demand impulse is difficult to sustain [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel rose 0.07%, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.03%. LME and SHFE nickel inventories increased. The nickel - iron price center decreased, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased slightly. Raw - material support in the new - energy industry chain is weakening, and the production of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On December 4, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 2270 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 675 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 3170 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased by 1540.7 yuan/ton [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged. The LME inventory was stable, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 1122 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased slightly [3]. - Aluminum: On December 4, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased. The LME inventory decreased by 2500 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 8439 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased. The LME inventory increased by 126 tons, and the SHFE nickel warrants increased by 2501 tons. The active - contract import loss increased [4]. - Zinc: The主力结算价 increased by 0.4%. The LME inventory was stable, and the SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased [6]. - Tin: The主力结算价 increased by 2.9%. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory increased by 130 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - nearest contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [12][16][17]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [19][21][23]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - Smelting Profit: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team at Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. They have rich experience in non - ferrous metals research, focusing on different sub - sectors and providing in - depth reports and policy interpretations [45][46].