震荡偏弱，注意波动率上升风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term oil prices may fluctuate weakly, but attention should be paid to the risk of rising volatility [1][4][69] - The short - term main influencing factors of the crude oil market are the development of geopolitical issues, including the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the situation in Venezuela [4][69] - The possibility of Russia - Ukraine peace talks is still the biggest bearish factor for current oil prices [4][69] - If the Trump administration wants to suppress the Russian economy through low oil prices, the possibility of intensifying the situation in Venezuela is not high [4][69] - Investors with high risk appetite are advised to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on option volatility [4][69] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Oil prices have been in a range - bound oscillation recently. The complexity of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the situation in Venezuela has made it difficult for the market to choose a direction. As of December 4, the active contract of WTI crude oil futures closed at $59.70 per barrel, and Brent crude oil closed at $63.37 per barrel. As of December 5, the active contract of SC crude oil futures closed at 453.7 yuan per barrel [4][9][69] - The inter - monthly spread has been oscillating at a low level [10] - As of the week of November 25, Brent fund net long positions were 125,587 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 52,240 lots, and diesel net long positions were - 19,363 lots [14] 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - OPEC+: In October, the production growth rate slowed down. OPEC+ crude oil production decreased by 106,000 barrels per day month - on - month in October. OPEC crude oil production increased by 33,000 barrels per day month - on - month. The slowdown in production increase was due to the decline in Saudi Arabia's production growth rate and the production decline in some countries affected by sanctions or production compensation. OPEC+ reiterated the decision to suspend production increase in Q1 of next year [19] - US: The daily crude oil production has been oscillating at a high level. As of the week of November 28, the US crude oil daily production was 1,381.5 barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 100 barrels per day. The OPEC report in November revised up the US crude oil production increase in 2025 to 410,000 barrels per day, and kept the increase in 2026 at 100,000 barrels per day unchanged [28] 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - US: The demand for refined oil products may pick up before Christmas. As of the week of November 28, the demand for gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel showed different trends. The total demand for petroleum products decreased slightly week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel rose and then fell, and the estimated profit of US refineries also showed a similar trend. After the end of maintenance, the operating rate of US refineries continued to rise [32][39][41] - China: The crude oil processing volume has continued to grow. From June to October, the crude oil processing volume increased year - on - year. In October, it was 63.43 million tons. The increase was mainly due to the significant increase in the operating rate of major refineries since June, and the improvement in the operating rate of local refineries since the second half of the year [47] 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - US: Crude oil inventories have increased slightly, and the inventory level has rebounded from a low level. As of the week of November 28, the US crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 427.503 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 574,000 barrels. The SPR inventory increased by 250,000 barrels. Gasoline and diesel inventories continued to increase, but the absolute level was not high, and the gasoline inventory was still at a five - year low [54][59] - OECD: The surplus pressure has gradually increased. In October 2025, the global crude oil monthly supply - demand gap was 443,000 barrels per day, and the OECD continued to accumulate inventories, with the inventory at the end of October reaching 2.903 billion barrels, a month - on - month increase of 25 million barrels [65]