沪铜增仓上行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: Today, Shanghai copper continued to rise with increasing positions, approaching the 93,000 mark at the end of the session, with an increase of about 30,000 contracts during the session. The weakening US dollar index led to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. The premiums of LME copper and Shanghai copper continued to strengthen, increasing the short - term expectation of spot shortages in non - US regions. Technically, copper prices broke through the 90,000 mark with increasing positions, showing strong short - term upward momentum [6]. - Aluminum: Today, aluminum prices maintained the strong pattern from last night, with the open interest continuing to rise. Due to the weak US dollar, non - ferrous metals generally rose. Both domestic and international electrolytic aluminum inventories remained stable at low levels. As aluminum prices rose, downstream buyers were hesitant due to high prices and purchased on an as - needed basis, causing the spot discount to continue to weaken. Technically, in the short term, aluminum prices rose with increasing positions, breaking through the 22,000 mark and the previous high in 2024, indicating strong short - term upward momentum [7]. - Nickel: Today, Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly below 118,000. The weak US dollar led to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. The spot premium continued to strengthen, supporting the futures price. In the short term, nickel prices remained volatile, with little change in open interest and low capital attention [8]. 3. Summary of Each Section Industry Dynamics - Copper: Goldman Sachs believes that although copper prices recently broke through $11,000/ton, triggering market optimism, this round of price increase may not be sustainable. Unless inventories significantly decrease and demand substantially recovers, copper prices may decline. Goldman Sachs maintains the 2026/2027 price range at approximately $10,000 - 11,000/ton. On December 4, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 164,500 tons, a cumulative increase of 6,000 tons from the 1st [10][11]. - Aluminum: According to SMM statistics on December 5, the total inventory of bauxite at 9 domestic ports was 22.72 million tons, an increase of 420,000 tons from the previous week. On December 4, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 593,000 tons, a cumulative increase of 2,000 tons from the 1st [12][13]. - Nickel: On December 5, the price range of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 117,400 - 122,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 120,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,800 - 5,000 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 400 yuan/ton [14]. Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [15][16][17]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [29][31][33]. - Nickel: The report includes charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [41][43][45].