多空博弈，煤焦低位震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending December 5, the total daily coke output of all independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1115 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.323 million tons, a weekly decrease of 23,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3,100 tons. Recently, upstream coal mines have given profits to coking and steel enterprises. Some coking enterprises have turned losses into profits, while most steel mills are still in the red, resulting in a phased pattern of increased supply and decreased demand for coke. Considering the possible macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal - mine production cuts at the end of the year, the cost - side pressure on coke is expected to have limited room for further increase, and the main contract may gradually stabilize. The downside risk lies in the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [6][39]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending December 5, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 754,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 57,000 tons. In November, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 port was 29,240 vehicles, a 38.5% increase from October, and the Mongolian coal import volume in November is expected to reach a new high for the year. The total daily coke output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1115 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. The negative factors in November have been released, and with the expected macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal - mine production cuts at the end of the year, the downside space for coking - coal futures is expected to be limited, and it may stabilize and fluctuate in the near future. Attention should be paid to the actual production situation of coal mines [7][40]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal in Shanxi aims to deepen the energy revolution, promote the construction of "Five Major Bases", ensure national energy security, and promote the high - end development of the coal industry and the transformation of coal products from primary fuels to high - value products. It also focuses on the high - quality development of the energy and raw - material industries and the green - low - carbon transformation [9]. - On December 5, the prices of coking coal in the Xingtai market remained stable, with low - sulfur primary coking coal at 1,470 yuan/ton and 1/3 coking coal at 1,180 yuan/ton, both being ex - factory prices including cash and tax [10]. 2. Spot Market - For coke, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,620 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly decrease of 2.99%, an annual decrease of 4.14%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.50%. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,460 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly increase of 0.69%, an annual decrease of 9.88%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.98% [11]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly decrease of 6.25%, an annual increase of 1.69%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.77%. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, with no weekly, monthly, or year - on - year change, but an annual increase of 5.37%. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly decrease of 3.51%, an annual increase of 7.84%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.37% [11]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15%. The highest price was 1,671 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,585 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 214,591 lots, an increase of 18,131 lots, and the open interest was 265,380 lots, a decrease of 527 lots [15]. - The closing price of the active coking - coal futures contract was 1,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.31%. The highest price was 1,193 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,138.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 785,839 lots, an increase of 448,608 lots, and the open interest was 469,486 lots, an increase of 60,508 lots [15]. 4. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port, and total coke inventory), coking - coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking - plant coking - coal inventory), domestic steel - mill production (blast - furnace开工率 and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (coal - washing plant clean - coal inventory and开工率), and coking - plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization) [16][24][31]. 5. Future Outlook - The future outlook for coke and coking coal is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current supply - demand situation, potential macro - level positive factors, and expected coal - mine production cuts [39][40].