橡胶甲醇原油：多空分歧延续，能化涨跌互现

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Rubber: On Friday, the domestic Shanghai Rubber Futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, and stabilizing in a volatile manner. The price center of the contract slightly moved up to around 15,100 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply and demand fundamentals, and rubber prices are oscillating within a range [6]. - Methanol: On Friday, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, weakening in a volatile manner, and closing slightly lower. As the previous bullish factors are gradually digested, methanol futures prices have started to correct and consolidate [7]. - Crude Oil: On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, strengthening in a volatile manner, and closing slightly higher. The supply surplus is competing with the seasonal demand recovery, and the weakening macro - sentiment, along with the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, is weakening the geopolitical premium of crude oil [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons or 2.71%. The bonded area inventory was 72,400 tons, with a growth rate of 0.69%, and the general trade inventory was 409,200 tons, with a growth rate of 3.07%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 6.55 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.43 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.23 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.66 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. Although there is an expectation of an increase in capacity utilization rate, the overall sales pressure remains, and the increase range is limited [10]. - In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index is above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [11]. Methanol - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 84.01%, a week - on - week increase of 0.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and a year - on - year increase of 3.53%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 178,400 tons [12]. - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the operating rate of domestic formaldehyde was maintained at 31.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 5.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01%. The operating rate of acetic acid was maintained at 72.95%, a week - on - week increase of 6.42%. The operating rate of MTBE was maintained at 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin (methanol) plants was 82.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.42 percentage points. As of December 5, 2025, the futures trading profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 67 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 195 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.1675 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 76,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 115,400 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 165,700 tons. As of the week of December 4, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 361,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 13,900 tons [13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 407, a week - on - week decrease of 12 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.815 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 3.02 million barrels per day, reaching a historical high [13]. - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 427.5 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 574,000 barrels and a year - on - year increase of 4.128 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 21.296 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 457,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 411.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 250,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 94.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 8.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points [14]. - As of October 14, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 60,991 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 13,318 contracts and a significant decrease of 36,857 contracts or 37.67% compared with the September average of 97,848 contracts. As of November 25, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 125,587 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 52,240 contracts and an increase of 6,176 contracts or 5.17% compared with the October average of 119,411 contracts [14]. 2. Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai Rubber was 14,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures main contract price was 15,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis was - 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [15]. - The spot price of methanol was 2,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures main contract price was 2,082 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. - The spot price of crude oil was 416.0 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.2 yuan/barrel from the previous day. The futures main contract price was 453.7 yuan/barrel, an increase of 1.1 yuan/barrel from the previous day, and the basis was - 40.5 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1 yuan/barrel [15]. 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Related charts include rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - Methanol: Related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [33][35][38] - Crude Oil: Related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [49][51][53]