中航期货橡胶周度报告-20251205

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - From Dec 3 - 9, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared to the previous period, affecting rubber tapping. The rubber market maintained a weak and volatile trend this week. There was a divergence in the raw material markets at home and abroad. Overseas raw material prices declined due to increased supply, while domestic prices were firm as the domestic producing areas entered the suspension period. However, limited downstream demand led to a slow accumulation of total natural rubber inventory. The synthetic rubber market also lacked strong support. Overall, the rubber market lacked prominent contradictions and was mainly volatile. Attention should be paid to the impact of raw material price changes on the widening price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [6][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Differentiated prices of domestic and foreign natural rubber raw materials: On Dec 4, the glue price in Thailand was 55.5 Thai baht/kg, while in Yunnan and Hainan in China, it was 13,900 yuan/ton and 13,100 yuan/ton respectively. Overseas raw material prices fell due to increased supply after floods receded, while domestic prices were firm as supply tightened [11]. - Slight accumulation of natural rubber inventory: As of Nov 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.102 million tons, a 2.1% increase. The inventory in Qingdao bonded area and general trade also increased. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses changed [14]. - Weak operation of butadiene price and stable production profit of enterprises: This week, the domestic butadiene market first rose and then fell, remaining in a volatile range. The price increase was short - lived due to loose supply and limited downstream acceptance. As of Dec 4, the prices in Shandong and East China were within certain ranges. As of Dec 5, the theoretical production profit of cis - polybutadiene rubber was 672.7143 yuan/ton, remaining stable [15]. - Poor inventory clearance of cis - polybutadiene rubber in factories: As of Dec 5, 2025, the weekly output of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber enterprises in China was 29,524 tons, a 1,341 - ton increase. Factory inventory increased by 200 tons, while trader inventory decreased by 310 tons. High production but weak downstream trading led to poor inventory clearance [18]. - Weak and stable overall tire production capacity utilization rate: As of the week of Dec 5, the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a 1.25% increase, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a 2.33% increase. The inventory days of sample enterprises changed. Although some enterprises resumed production after maintenance, the overall production capacity utilization rate did not return to normal levels due to sales pressure and new maintenance arrangements [19]. - Differentiated price difference trends of the three rubber contracts on the disk: As of Dec 4, the price difference of the "RU - NR" January contract fluctuated, and the price difference of the "NR - BR" main contract converged as synthetic rubber was stronger than natural rubber during the week due to butadiene exports [21]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: The raw material price of natural rubber in domestic producing areas has support [10]. - Bearish factors: The inventory clearance of natural rubber is poor, with a slight accumulation; the production of cis - polybutadiene rubber is at a high level, and the inventory clearance in factories is poor; the raw material price support of natural rubber in overseas producing areas is weak [10]. 3.3后市研判 - The natural rubber market has a supply - cost divergence at home and abroad, and limited downstream demand leads to inventory accumulation. The synthetic rubber market lacks strong cost support. Overall, the rubber market is mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of raw material price changes on the price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [25].