铝产业链周度报告-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current labor market in the United States is weak, and the decline in ADP employment data in November has further increased the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The economic sentiment in China is generally stable, and attention should be paid to the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. In the aluminum industry, the supply of domestic bauxite is tight, while the overseas supply may be relatively loose. The operating capacity of alumina is slightly decreasing at a high level, and the price may fluctuate at a low level. The production of electrolytic aluminum in October increased year - on - year, but the downstream processing start - up rate is decreasing. The inventory of domestic and foreign exchanges has declined, and the social inventory has slightly increased. In terms of the market outlook, it is recommended to be bullish on aluminum prices after the correction, and for aluminum alloy, wait for the opportunity to buy on the correction [5][11][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The latest ADP employment data shows that private enterprises in the United States reduced 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023, far lower than the market expectation of an increase of 10,000. The US manufacturing PMI index in November decreased by 0.5 points to 48.2, continuously below the boom - bust line of 50 for nine months, with the new order index and backlog orders showing significant contractions. Domestically, the economic sentiment is generally stable. In the aluminum industry, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has little change, the supply side is stable, and the demand side shows a weakening trend. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has decreased, and the social inventory has slightly increased. It is recommended to be bullish on aluminum prices after the correction, paying attention to the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December and the subsequent interest rate cut path prediction [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has little change; the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is rising; the overseas aluminum supply - demand tension still exists [8]. - Bearish factors: The downstream's fear of high prices has resurfaced, and the social inventory has turned to a slight accumulation; the terminal market has entered the off - season [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Bauxite: In October, the domestic bauxite output was 4.7723 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The supply in Henan has gradually recovered, while that in Shanxi has not fully recovered, and the domestic supply remains tight. In October, China imported 13.77 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month decrease of 13.30% and a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. It is expected that the import volume will increase significantly in November [17][20]. - Alumina: In October, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The operating capacity is slightly decreasing at a high level, and the price may fluctuate at a low level due to factors such as profit compression and environmental protection control [24]. - Electrolytic aluminum: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased. In November, with the implementation of environmental protection policies, the production of some enterprises may be restricted, and the aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline slightly [27]. - Downstream processing: The weekly start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.9% this week, and it is expected to continue to weaken in the short term [31]. - Inventory: The LME aluminum inventory has slightly decreased to 530,900 tons, and the SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.82% to 115,277 tons in the week of November 28. As of December 4, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese regions was 593,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from Monday this week [42][46]. - Price: On December 5, the average price of aluminum in Shanghai Wumao had a larger discount, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 spread also had a larger discount [50]. - Recycled aluminum: In October, the output of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons month - on - month. As of November 27, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 61.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9% [54][58]. - Aluminum alloy trade: In October 2025, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 76,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1%. The export volume was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.7% and a month - on - month increase of 31.5% [62]. - Aluminum alloy inventory: As of December 5, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 73,800 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from last week, and the in - plant inventory was 58,100 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from last week [67]. 3.4 Market Outlook Judgment - Aluminum alloy: Follow the trend of aluminum prices and wait for the opportunity to buy on the correction [68]. - SHFE aluminum: In the short term, aluminum prices are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. Pay attention to the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December and the subsequent interest rate cut path prediction. It is recommended to be bullish on aluminum prices after the correction [70].