黄金时代系列报告：百年金矿供给复盘：从扩张浪潮到刚性约束

Investment Rating - The report has an investment rating of "Positive" and has been upgraded [13] Core Insights - The report provides a unique perspective on the gold mining supply history over the past century, analyzing it through four dimensions: quantity, efficiency, capital, and geological difficulty. It outlines a historical transition from "quantity dividends" to "technical dividends" and "capital dividends," ultimately leading to "geological constraints." The current supply system is shifting from "external drivers" to "internal constraints," fundamentally reshaping the long-term support logic for gold prices [3][9][11]. Summary by Sections Historical Supply Waves - The gold supply has undergone four distinct phases: 1. Quantity Dividend Period (1900-1970): Characterized by significant new discoveries, with over 300 new gold mines discovered every decade, leading to a production increase from 500 tons to 1200 tons [10][34]. 2. Efficiency Dividend Period (1970-2000): Technological advancements allowed for increased production despite declining ore grades, with annual production rising from 1200 tons to 1900 tons [10][38]. 3. Capital Dividend Period (2000-2012): Capital investments surged, with global mining capital expenditures rising from $11.3 billion to nearly $80 billion, boosting production from 2500 tons to 2900 tons [10][48]. 4. Geological Constraint Period (2012-Present): Geological conditions have become the primary constraint, with exploration depths increasing and average grades declining, leading to a systematic upward shift in the supply curve [10][54]. Future Supply Outlook - The global gold supply is expected to experience a fundamental shift, with a slight increase to 3694 tons in 2025 due to new projects in North America and Africa. However, from 2026 to 2028, a trend of supply contraction is anticipated, with annual growth rates projected to remain between -5% and 0%, leading to a total production drop to approximately 3500 tons by 2028 [11][77]. Supply Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the supply dynamics are transitioning from an expansion phase to a contraction phase, with geological constraints becoming the dominant factor. The average exploration depth has increased significantly, and the average grade has dropped to 0.35 g/t, leading to rising costs and declining production capacity [20][60]. Price Support Mechanism - The structural contraction in supply is expected to provide strong support for gold prices, as the historical mechanisms that led to significant price pullbacks due to supply surges are no longer effective. The report suggests that the rigid constraints on supply will fundamentally support gold prices moving forward [11][77].