市场预期反复，矿价偏空对待

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - This week, iron ore prices fell from their highs. The supply side has remained stable since November, with Australian mainstream ore remaining basically flat year-on-year, and Brazilian ore contributing a small increase. Non-mainstream shipments decreased slightly month-on-month from the high in the third quarter but still contributed an increase year-on-year. The overall supply in the fourth quarter is expected to remain loose. - On the demand side, the domestic terminal steel demand has been declining rapidly on a quarter-on-quarter basis since the third quarter, and there is no sign of significant improvement in the fourth quarter. In October, steel consumption in the real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors all declined. In the medium term, domestic terminal steel demand is expected to continue to operate at a low level. - Overseas demand for iron ore has maintained high growth. From January to October, overseas iron element consumption increased by 3.3% year-on-year, or 27 million tons. Since the second quarter, overseas iron element consumption has been at a high level year-on-year, continuously contributing to the increase. Among them, overseas India's crude steel output increased by 10% year-on-year from January to October, or 12.6 million tons, and is expected to contribute an additional 15 million tons for the whole year. - Overall, the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate medium-term iron ore prices. Since the fourth quarter, the domestic iron element supply-demand pattern has remained loose, domestic iron element inventories have continued to increase, and the fundamentals of iron ore have undergone significant changes. It is expected that iron ore prices will mainly operate at high levels with a downward trend. - Trading strategy: Adopt a bearish view for unilateral trading; hold a wait-and-see attitude for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Trading Strategy: Adopt a bearish view for unilateral trading; hold a wait-and-see attitude for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - Global Iron Ore Shipment Volume: Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 31.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, or 31.9 million tons. Among them, the weekly average of Australian shipments is 17.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, or 1.8 million tons, and the weekly average of Brazilian shipments is 7.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, or 13 million tons. - Mainstream Mines in Australia and Brazil: Since 2025, Rio Tinto's shipments have decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, or 1.9 million tons, BHP's shipments have decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, or 300,000 tons, FMG's shipments have increased by 4.8% year-on-year, or 8.2 million tons, and Vale's shipments have increased by 0.5% year-on-year, or 1.2 million tons. The overall supply of the four major mines has increased by more than 7 million tons year-on-year since the beginning of the year. - Non-Mainstream Mines: Since 2025, the weekly average of non-Australian and non-Brazilian ore shipments has been 5.72 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, or 21 million tons. The weekly average of non-mainstream Australian ore shipments is 2.37 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, or 7.9 million tons, and the weekly average of non-mainstream Brazilian ore shipments is 2.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, or 12 million tons. The non-mainstream ore shipments have been improving since the third quarter, and are expected to contribute a large increase for the whole year, but the domestic import volume is still negative year-on-year [15][17]. Demand Side - Domestic Demand: Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic hot metal production has increased by 3% year-on-year, or 11.3 million tons, and crude steel production has increased by 2.6% year-on-year, or 11.8 million tons. Among them, the apparent demand for building materials has decreased by 4% year-on-year, or 7.8 million tons, the apparent demand for non-building materials has decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, or 4.8 million tons, and domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) has decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, or 12.6 million tons. The manufacturing steel demand has turned negative year-on-year since the third quarter, exerting significant pressure on the current terminal steel demand. - Overseas Demand: From January to October, overseas iron element consumption increased by 3.3% year-on-year, or 27 million tons. Since the second quarter, overseas iron element consumption has been at a high level year-on-year, continuously contributing to the increase. Among them, overseas India's crude steel output increased by 10% year-on-year from January to October, or 12.6 million tons, and is expected to contribute an additional 15 million tons for the whole year [30]. Inventory - Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory: This week, the imported iron ore port inventory increased slightly month-on-month, the steel mill inventory increased slightly, and the berthing volume remained basically flat, resulting in a month-on-month increase of over 1 million tons in the total domestic imported iron ore inventory. Since August, the total domestic iron element inventory has continued to increase, with an inventory accumulation of over 12 million tons. The current total domestic iron element inventory is at a five-year high, second only to the level in 2021 [26].