国信期货苹果周报：主力合约移仓换月，盘面延续高位震荡-20251205

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the apple futures main contract has completed position transfer and AP2605 continues to fluctuate at a high level. The inventory is lower than the same period last year, and the cold - storage shipment volume is gradually increasing. The approaching Christmas and New Year's Day have an obvious boosting effect on demand. With the withdrawal of seasonal fruits, the substitution effect is greatly weakened, which is beneficial to the recovery of apple demand. The decline in production and quality supports prices, but quality issues may increase storage costs. The new - season apple production reduction is a foregone conclusion, providing strong support for the cost side. The price differentiation of different - quality apple sources is expected to be obvious, and the futures contracts may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review The apple futures main contract has completed position transfer, and AP2605 continues to fluctuate at a high level [8]. 3.2 Supply - side Situation As of December 4, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 7.2438 billion tons, with a cold - storage inventory ratio of about 55.00%, 7.68 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Shaanxi and Gansu production areas reported slower shipments, but the inventory in surrounding areas such as Shanxi changed from increasing to decreasing after the end of warehousing. So, the national cold - storage inventory shipment volume increased slightly compared with last week [11]. 3.3 Demand - side Situation - Cold - storage shipment volume: As of December 4, 2025, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.38 percentage points, the single - week shipment volume increased by 0.07 percentage points compared with last week, and the de - stocking rate was 1.55%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 55.33%, which decreased by 0.28 percentage points this week. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 53.48%, a weekly decrease of 0.41 percentage points [15]. - Export volume: In October 2025, the fresh apple export volume was about 80,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04%. The delayed listing of new - season apples led to a significant year - on - year decrease in exports in October [18]. - Spot price: As of December 5, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of 65 - 70 cold - storage apples from fruit farmers is 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per catty, and the price of 75 apples from merchants is about 3.0 yuan per catty. The 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit from fruit farmers has an intended quotation of 3.7 - 4.0 yuan per catty for slice - red apples and 4.0 - 4.7 yuan per catty for striped apples. The asking price for merchant - sourced apples is higher, with an intended price of 4.2 - 5.2 yuan per catty for 80 and above first - and second - grade apples (not yet traded) [31].