纸浆周报：强势反弹，基本面有所改善-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market has shown a strong rebound with improved fundamentals. The decrease in imports in October has raised concerns about supply tightening, international producers' shutdown news and price - increase announcements have boosted the market. With the recovery of downstream paper mills' operating rates, the spot market of imported wood pulp has an upward price expectation, and it is recommended to consider a small - position long trial [2][36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The main pulp futures contract SP2601 rebounded strongly from the bottom, and slightly declined after a rapid rise [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Pulp Market Price: As of December 4, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5488 yuan/ton, up 0.44% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4454 yuan/ton, up 1.46% from last week, also turning from a decline to an increase [12]. - October Pulp Import Volume: In October 2025, China imported 261.8 tons of pulp with an import value of 1.5317 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 585.06 US dollars/ton. The import volume in October decreased by 11.31% month - on - month, and the cumulative import volume and value from January to October increased by 4.8% and decreased by 2.0% respectively compared with the same period last year [17]. - Port Inventory Situation: As of December 4, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0429 million tons, up 0.09% from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.44 percentage points [21]. - October European Port Wood Pulp Inventory Situation: In October 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 10.22% month - on - month and 6.47% compared with October 2024. Except for a 3.98% month - on - month increase in German port inventory, the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, Italy, and Spain decreased by 9.13%, 12.08%, 20.24%, and 2.48% respectively month - on - month [25]. - Downstream Pulp Operating Rates: Waste paper pulp consumption accounts for 63% of China's total pulp consumption. As of December 4, the operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 0.87 percentage points week - on - week; that of double - offset paper increased by 0.79 percentage points; that of white cardboard increased by 0.51 percentage points; and that of household paper remained flat [30]. 3.3 Future Outlook - The decrease in pulp imports in October has led to concerns about supply tightening. International softwood pulp producers' shutdown news has boosted the market, and downstream paper mills' operating rates have recovered. The spot market of imported wood pulp has an upward price expectation, and it is recommended to consider a small - position long trial [36].