棉花周报：郑棉偏弱震荡，短期上下空间有限-20251205

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated narrowly this week, facing significant resistance around 13,800 yuan/ton. With new cotton entering the market, commercial inventory and warehouse receipt registration have increased rapidly. Although policies are favorable and external markets have positive factors, the rapid appreciation of the RMB may impact exports. Overall, the short - term upside and downside of Zhengzhou cotton are limited, with an expected trading range of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton. [53] - Internationally, the drought in the US main cotton - producing areas has improved, which is bearish for cotton prices. Export data is also negative. However, Vietnam has not significantly increased its purchases of Brazilian cotton, and the high - level shipments of US cotton to Vietnam may be related to transshipment. Overall, US cotton is under short - term upward pressure and is expected to fluctuate weakly. [53] - The operation suggestion is mainly short - term trading. [54] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 0.11%. ICE cotton futures trended weakly, with a weekly decline of 1.37%. [11] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - This week's cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose by 148 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index rose by 126 yuan/ton. [16] 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In October, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. [21] 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory Situation - In the first half of November, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons. With new cotton on the market, the market has entered the inventory accumulation stage. [25] 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory Situation - In October, the yarn inventory was 26.12 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.89 days. The grey fabric inventory was 31.97 days, a year - on - year increase of 3.74 days. [30] 3.1.6 Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S cotton yarn increased by 30 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of C32S cotton yarn increased by 110 yuan/ton, and the price of JC40S cotton yarn increased by 90 yuan/ton. [35] 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 1,093. There were 2,639 warehouse receipts and 2,746 effective forecasts, totaling 5,385. [41] 3.1.8 Seed Cotton Purchase Situation - Not elaborated on specific purchase volume or trend, only shows the Xinjiang seed cotton purchase price data. [44][45] 3.1.9 US Cotton Export Situation - As of October 30, the current - year net sales of US upland cotton exports increased by 81,500 bales, and the next - year net sales were 7,900 bales. US cotton weekly contract signings declined significantly, and Vietnam reduced its signings for two consecutive weeks. [46] 3.1.10 US Weather Situation - The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US is 21.2%, moderate drought areas 21.3%, severe drought areas 11.4%, extreme drought areas 1.9%, and exceptional drought areas 0.2%. The total drought - affected area (D1 - D4) is 34.7%. [52] 3.2后市展望 - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton has limited short - term upside and downside, with a trading range of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton. [53] - Internationally, US cotton is under short - term upward pressure and is expected to fluctuate weakly. [53] - The operation suggestion is short - term trading. [54]