鸡蛋周报：需求表现一般，蛋价有所回落-20251205

Report Title - "Egg Weekly Report: General Demand, Egg Prices Decline" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The egg market is currently facing challenges with weak demand and downward - pressure on prices. The supply side shows a slow de - stocking trend, and the cost of egg - chicken farming is increasing, resulting in negative profits. In the short - term, the egg price is expected to be range - bound, and the long - term outlook depends on the supply - demand balance [5][10][13] Summary by Directory Part I: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 2.8 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas, it was 3.13 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin. The demand in the national egg market recovered this week, the inventory was basically cleared, and the egg price rebounded from the low. The old - hen price showed a trend of strengthening first and then stabilizing [5] 2. Supply Analysis - On December 5th, the national main - producing area egg - chicken culling volume was 20.82 million, a 5% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 488 days, 1 day less than the previous week. In November, the national in - production egg - chicken inventory was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and a 5.5% year - on - year increase. The monthly egg - chicken chick hatching volume of sample enterprises was 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of November 20th, the corn price was around 2,278 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3,062 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,513 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.76 yuan/jin for eggs. As of November 21st, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week. On November 14th, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 7.19 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - As of December 5th, the national representative selling - area egg sales volume was 7,115 tons, a 4% decrease from the previous week. The production - link inventory decreased, and the circulation - link inventory increased. As of December 3rd, the Shouguang vegetable price index was 144.36, and the national average pork wholesale price was about 14.92 yuan/kg, with little change from the previous week [16] 5. Trading Strategies - Trading logic: The recent increase in culled - chicken volume has relieved the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term de - stocking speed will be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to be range - bound, and the far - month April and May contracts can be considered for long - position building on dips. - Unilateral: The January contract is expected to be range - bound in the short - term. Consider building long positions in the far - month contracts on dips. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Inventory (Zhuochuang) - The data shows the historical in - production egg - chicken inventory and brooding - chicken replenishment volume from 2018 to 2025 [21] 2. Culled - Chicken Situation - The data shows the weekly culled - chicken volume from 2020 to 2025 [22] 3. Egg - Chicken Farming Situation - The data shows the culled - chicken age and the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main producing areas [26] 4. Spread and Basis - The data shows the basis of January, May, and September contracts, as well as the spreads such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread from 2018 to 2025 [29][30][33]