苹果周报：冷库果量偏低，果价有所支撑-20251205

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Apple Weekly Report: Low Cold Storage Fruit Volume Supports Fruit Prices [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 [1] - Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0014425 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis Spot Analysis - This week, the overall transaction of late Fuji apples remained light. In the producing areas, orders from merchants were limited. In the western producing areas, small - quantity shipments of polar fruits from fruit farmers were the main source, and some merchants supplied the market with their self - stored goods. In Shandong, the foreign trade channel purchasing slowed down, and the transaction of small fruits decreased. In the sales areas, the number of incoming trucks increased slightly, but the trading atmosphere was still light, and there was a slight backlog in the transfer warehouses. Citrus fruits affected the sales of apples [7]. - In Shandong, the overall transaction was slow, and the price of fruit farmers' goods remained stable. The foreign trade channel continued to look for goods but at a slower pace, mainly for 65 - 75 small fruits. The ex - warehouse price of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmers' goods in Qixia was 3.7 - 4.5 yuan/jin, with few transactions; the ex - warehouse price of 65 and 70 small fruits in Penglai was 2 - 2.2 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi, fruit farmers' willingness to ship was still low. In Luochuan, merchants mainly packed their own goods and sent them through their own channels, with a small amount of purchasing from fruit farmers' polar fruits. In Weinan, sporadic shipments occurred, and the sales of high - grade inferior fruits were okay, but the purchase of good fruits from fruit farmers by merchants was limited. The current price of semi - commercial fruits from fruit farmers above 70 in Luochuan was around 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and high - grade inferior fruits were around 2.2 yuan/jin. In Baishui, the mainstream ex - warehouse price of fruit farmers' general goods was about 3.2 - 3.4 yuan/jin [7]. Supply Analysis - As of December 4, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 55.00%, 7.68 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From November 27 to December 3, 2025, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.38 percentage points, the single - week ex - warehouse volume increased by 0.07 percentage points compared with last week, and the inventory removal rate was 1.55%. The shipment in Shaanxi and Gansu slowed down, but the inventory in surrounding areas such as Shanxi changed from increasing to decreasing, so the national cold storage inventory shipment increased slightly compared with last week. The cold storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 55.33%, and it decreased by 0.28 percentage points this week. The ex - warehouse in Shandong was mainly for export and the sales of other varieties, and the market shipment was small. The cold storage transaction volume was average, the transaction volume of small and medium - sized fruits decreased, and the packaging also decreased slightly. The ex - warehouse in Shaanxi was 53.48%, and it decreased by 0.41 percentage points this week. The cold storage transaction and shipment volume decreased compared with last week due to the off - season and the impact of citrus [12]. - As of December 3, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the national main producing areas was 7.6351 million tons, a decrease of 32,400 tons compared with last week [12]. Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of incoming trucks in the morning increased compared with last week, with an average of about 26.80 trucks per day. The mainstream price of Shandong 80 late Fuji in baskets was 3.8 - 4 yuan/jin, and in boxes was 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin. The price of Luochuan late Fuji in baskets starting from 70 was 4.0 - 5.5 yuan/jin, and that of Jingning late Fuji in boxes starting from 70 was 5.8 - 7.5 yuan/jin. Recently, the number of incoming trucks in the market increased slightly, but the sales slowed down compared with the previous period. The goods from Gansu sold well, while the sales of other goods were average. The purchasing enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers was not high, and there was pressure on daily digestion, with an increase in the backlog in transfer warehouses [15]. - According to the data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on December 4, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.31 yuan/kg, slightly higher than last Friday, and it was at a high level in the same period in recent years [15]. - In the 2025 - 2026 production season, during the acquisition stage, the profit statistics of 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in Qixia were suspended [15]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: This year, the apple production decreased, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, and the preservation difficulty increased. The market expected that the cold storage inventory data was likely to be low. The peak cold storage apple inventory this year was at a low level in the same period over the years, and the apple quality was relatively poor, so the effective inventory was expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals were strong [16]. - Unilateral: The relatively poor quality of new apples supports the fruit price, and the demand is average. It is expected that the apple trend will be mainly high - level oscillation [16]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Group 4: Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - The chart shows the consumption, deep - processing volume, production, export, and planting area of apples from 2018 to 2023 [20]. Inventory and Shipment - The chart shows the cold storage inventory trends of apples in the whole country, Shandong, and Shaanxi from 2017/18 to 2025/26, as well as the national apple cold storage ex - warehouse trend from 2016/17 to 2024/25 [23][24][25]. Spread and Basis - The chart shows the 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, 10 - 1 spread, and the basis of January, May, and October from 2019 to 2025 [28].