棉系周报：新棉销售较快，棉价震荡偏强-20251205

Report Title and Analyst Information - The report is titled "Cotton Weekly Report: New Cotton Sales are Fast, Cotton Prices are Oscillating Strongly" and is written by researcher Liu Qiannan from Galaxy Futures' Agricultural Products Research Department [1] Report's Core View - The international market expects U.S. cotton to continue to oscillate within a range, while the domestic market anticipates that cotton prices will oscillate strongly. Overall, short - term cotton prices are expected to oscillate, with the current good cotton sales providing support [8][29][45] 1. International Market Analysis U.S. Cotton Market - The U.S. cotton market has few fundamental contradictions and is expected to oscillate within a range. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 1.7585 million tons, accounting for 57.3% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 12% slower year - on - year. The weekly deliverable ratio was 85.7%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82%, 0.5 percentage points lower year - on - year but increasing quarter - on - quarter [8] - As of the week of October 30, 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton weekly contracts totaled 18,500 tons, a 39% weekly decrease and a 51% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks; weekly shipments were 33,200 tons, a 16% weekly decrease and a 7% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [8] - As of November 28, the number of un - priced seller contracts on the ON - CALL 2603 contract increased by 634 to 21,716, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week. The total number of un - priced seller contracts in the 25/26 season increased by 1001 to 39,293, equivalent to 890,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week [8] Brazil - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics predicts that the total output of the main producing region will drop to 2.58 million tons in 2026 due to a reduction in the sown area to 1.43 million hectares, mainly because of rising cotton production costs and poor crop yields this season. The Brazilian Cotton Producers Association predicts the 2026 national total output to be 3.829 million tons [8] India - The Indian Cotton Association released its first supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 season, forecasting a production of 30.5 million bales (170 kg per bale), a decrease of 740,000 bales compared to the 2024/25 season. Consumption is expected to be 30 million bales, a decrease of 1.4 million bales from the previous season. Exports are forecasted at 1.7 million bales, and imports at 4.5 million bales, indicating that India is expected to become a net importer in the 2025/26 season [8] Global - According to the latest November global cotton production and sales forecast by the USDA, the global total cotton production in November was 26.14 million tons, an increase of 520,000 tons month - on - month; total consumption increased by 11,000 tons to 25.88 million tons; ending stocks increased by 607,000 tons to 16.53 million tons [8] 2. Domestic Market Logic Analysis Supply Side - As of 24:00 on December 3, 2025, the cumulative official inspection was 20,147,916 bales, totaling 4,548,335 tons, a 16.88% year - on - year increase. The cumulative official inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 4,474,521 tons, a 18.34% year - on - year increase [29] - As of November 28, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 4.1794 million tons, an increase of 379,300 tons (9.98% increase) week - on - week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 3.6164 million tons, a 373,900 - ton (11.53% increase) week - on - week increase [29] Demand Side - As of November 27, the cumulative sales of lint cotton were 2.423 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years, an increase of 1.769 million tons compared to the average of the past four years [29] - As of December 4, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.3%, a 0.31% decrease from the previous week. The raw material inventory decreased slightly, and the yarn inventory of spinning mills in the main areas was 30.2 days, a 0.67% weekly increase [29] Overall Outlook - The supply side has a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the short - term supply remains loose. The demand side has orders in the off - season, and the overall performance is average. Considering that the previous negative factors have been reflected in the market, and the current cotton sales are good, it is expected that the short - term cotton price will oscillate strongly [29] 3. Option Strategy - The volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.7094, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.8660. The trading volume of both calls and puts decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [43] 4. Futures Trading Strategy Trading Logic - The supply side has a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the short - term supply is loose. The demand side's orders are generally small and scattered. Considering that the previous negative factors have been reflected in the market, it is expected that short - term cotton prices will oscillate [45] Specific Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is expected that the future trend of U.S. cotton will mostly oscillate within a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate [47] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [47] 5. Weekly Data Tracking Mid - stream Situation - Data on the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, all - cotton grey fabric mills, yarn inventory days, and grey fabric inventory days are presented, reflecting the mid - stream production and inventory situation [54] Cotton Inventory - Data on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mill industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory are presented, showing the overall inventory situation of the cotton market [56] Basis Spread - Data on the basis spread between cotton futures and spot, including the basis spread of cotton in January, May, and September, and the basis spread of U.S. cotton, are presented, reflecting the relationship between futures and spot prices [59]