国投期货农产品日报-20251205

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Doupo: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Douyou: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Palm oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Corn: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Live pigs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall performance of agricultural products in the market shows different trends, with some products affected by supply - demand relationships, policies, weather, and other factors [2][3][4] - Different agricultural products have different price trends, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to the specific situation of each product [3][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Douyi - The main contract of Douyi shows a reduction in positions and a price decline. The spot price of domestic soybeans is stable and firm. The price of US soybeans is affected by South American weather and US soybean exports, and is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy and spot performance of domestic soybeans [2] Soybeans & Doupo - The price of Dalian Doupo futures fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to the December USDA global agricultural product supply - demand report. The 05 contract has not broken through the upper edge of the box. Whether it can break through upward in the medium - term depends on US soybean exports and the impact of the La Nina weather in South America. The strategy is to observe whether it can break through upward and look for long - entry opportunities later [3] Douyou & Palm oil - The market expects that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in November is still increasing, with high inventory pressure. If the supply - side production reduction continues, the signal of a phased price bottom will be prominent, but the rebound strength is limited. The medium - term of Douyou also needs to pay attention to policy changes. The domestic soybean crushing profit is improving. The overall view of soybean and palm oil is range - bound, and short - term attention should be paid to the fundamentals of the oil market [4] Caipo & Caiyou - The Caisi market continues its weak trend, and the external rapeseed price is under pressure. The production of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is estimated to be higher than expected, and the supply of the Caisi market has temporarily eased after Australian rapeseed arrives at the port. The domestic demand for Caisi is still weak, and the futures price of Caisi will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures C2601 contract rose 0.97% after rising and then falling, but the subsequent contracts lack upward momentum. The supply - demand mismatch in the corn market still exists. Future attention should be paid to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat. The 01 contract should be observed first, and the 03 and 05 contracts should wait for a pullback [7] Live pigs - Live pig futures are running weakly, and the 03 contract has hit a new low. The inventory of breeding sows in November continued to decline slightly month - on - month. The southern curing will gradually start, and the supply side has the pressure of fattening pigs for secondary fattening to be sold. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - Egg futures are slightly weak, and the spot price in most parts of the country has declined. The current supply pressure is high, and the forward - looking inventory decline expectation has ended. The 01 contract has a premium over the spot, and a short - selling strategy is recommended for the near - term contract [9]