白糖周报：国内压榨高峰临近，价格承压下跌-20251205

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Approaching Peak Domestic Sugar Pressing, Prices Under Pressure to Decline [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the harvest phase, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The international sugar price has shown signs of bottoming out and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Domestically, sugar mills are in the peak pressing season, and the supply and sales pressure will increase. However, due to tightened imports and high production costs, the downward price space is expected to be limited [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Strategies: - Unilateral: Wait and see as the Brazilian sugar season is nearing the end, and although the domestic market has increased supply pressure, the downward price space is limited due to high production costs and low current prices [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Sell put options at low prices [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes: - In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus of 163 tons, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption increasing by only 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The 2024/25 season had a supply - demand gap of 292 tons. Datagro lowered its forecast of the 2025/26 global sugar supply surplus to 100 tons, reduced Brazil's sugar production forecast, and cut India's sugar production forecast by 70 tons. Major importers like China and Indonesia have increased their purchases [8]. - Brazilian Sugar Situation: - Production is expected to remain high, with the 2025/26 production forecast at 45.02 million tons, slightly higher than in August [9]. - In the first half of November, the sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased significantly. The cane crushing volume, ethanol production, and sugar production all increased compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the first half of November in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil increased by 800,000 tons year - on - year [13]. - Sugar inventory decreased slightly, and exports decreased. In November, sugar and molasses exports were 3.3023 million tons, a 2.59% decrease from the same period last year. Cumulative exports from April to November decreased by 4.3% year - on - year [16]. - Thai Sugar Situation: - In the 2024/25 season, sugar production was 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons. Exports from January to September 2025 were 4.8685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.32 million tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to have a slight increase in production, and exports are expected to increase by 1 million tons [24]. - Indian Sugar Situation: - In the 2025/26 season, as of November 30, cumulative cane crushing increased by 45.5% year - on - year, and sugar production increased by 49.81% year - on - year. The average national sugar production cost has risen to 41.72 rupees per kilogram [32]. - Domestic Sugar Situation: - Sugar mills are gradually starting production. As of November 30, 35 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, with a decrease in cane crushing and sugar production compared to the same period last year. In Yunnan, 10 sugar mills have started production, with an increase in cane crushing and sugar production compared to the same period last year [35]. - Import profits are relatively high [36]. - In October 2025, sugar imports were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons. From January to October, sugar imports were 3.9054 million tons, a 13.8% year - on - year increase. The import of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased [43]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Includes data on Brazilian sugar production, exports, inventory; Indian and Thai sugar production; and domestic sugar production, imports, etc., presented in various charts and figures [45][56][62]