国信期货生猪周报：供应宽松压制猪市，后期关注消费表现-20251205

Report Title - "Supply Glut Pressures the Pig Market, Later Focus on Consumption Performance - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs" [2] Report Date - December 05, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the past week, the live pig spot market fluctuated weakly, the futures market fluctuated weakly, and the basis strengthened slightly. The supply is still relatively loose due to low large - scale enterprise出栏量 and increased supply from retail farmers and second - fattened pigs, while consumption growth is limited. [7] - From the number of piglet births and feed production and sales, the supply of standard pigs will increase until the end of the first quarter of next year. [7] - From now to before the Spring Festival, slaughter demand will increase seasonally, but it is expected that the spot market in December will likely continue to fluctuate weakly. After the Spring Festival, supply remains high and consumption is weak, and the market will be under pressure, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether farmers accelerate the出栏 before the Spring Festival, leading to a pre - emptive supply pressure. [7] - In the long term, the rapid decline in the number of fertile sows in October and the continued month - on - month decline in November in the sample statistics will form bottom support for contracts after September next year. [7] - For operation, the near - term contracts should be treated as fluctuating weakly, and for the far - term contracts, opportunities for band - trading long positions at low prices can be grasped under the idea of wide - range fluctuations. [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - The supply and demand situation of live pigs is currently loose. In the future, the supply of standard pigs will be on the rise until the end of the first quarter of next year. The market situation varies in different time periods, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed. [7] 2 - 14. Other Sections - The report also includes aspects such as live pig futures market, futures contract spreads, spot market, fat - to - standard pig price difference, changes in fertile sows, piglets, inventory,出栏, slaughter, consumption, frozen meat market, cost and profit, central reserve frozen pork operations, and multi - caliber comparisons, but specific content summaries are not provided here as no detailed information about these parts is given in the text. [8][16][20][28][32][38][42][46][50][55][57][64][68][73]