沥青日报：震荡运行-20251205

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the asphalt futures price is expected to show a weak and volatile trend. The supply side may see a slight increase in the asphalt operating rate, while the demand side will further weaken as road construction in the north gradually winds down due to the dropping temperature and the incremental projects in the south are limited. Currently, the market is cautious about the winter storage contracts, and the price in Shandong has been falling, with the basis remaining at a neutral level [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years compared to the same period last year. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.0 million tons (3.1%) month-on-month and 34.4 million tons (13.8%) year-on-year [1]. - The operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends this week. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 29% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. The national shipment volume increased by 7.06% to 280,600 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week-on-week and is still near the lowest level in recent years. The crude oil price is oscillating at a low level. The distillation unit in Venezuela's Jose Industrial Zone has been shut down, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened. Next week, Qilu Petrochemical plans to switch to asphalt production, which will slightly increase the asphalt operating rate [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.30% to 2,948 yuan/ton today, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 2,926 yuan/ton, and the highest was 2,958 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 13,629 to 90,743 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong continued to decline to 2,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to -18 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years compared to the same period last year [4]. - From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, with the cumulative year-on-year growth rate remaining the same as that from January to September 2025 but still negative. The actual cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in the road transportation industry from January to October 2025 was -4.3%, a slight decline from -2.7% from January to September 2025, still in a negative growth situation. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October 2025 was -0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% from January to September 2025 [4]. - As of the week of December 5, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 29% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 percentage point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - As of the week of December 5, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 13.2% compared to the week of November 28, and it is near the lowest level in recent years [4].