PVC日报：震荡下行-20251205

Report Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The PVC market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend recently. Although the cancellation of India's BIS policy on PVC and the meeting on price competition cost standards offer some support, factors such as the decline in the Taiwan Plastics' December quotes, the traditional off - season in December, high inventory, and slow real - estate improvement lead to limited positive impacts, and the PVC price is likely to continue its weak performance [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China is stable. The PVC production rate decreased slightly by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream production rate also declined slightly, and the downstream product orders are poor [1]. - India terminated its BIS policy on PVC, reducing concerns about Chinese PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty is likely to be cancelled, but the Taiwan Plastics' December quotes dropped by 30 - 60 dollars per ton, and last week's export orders decreased [1]. - The social inventory of PVC continued to increase. As of the week of December 4, it increased by 1.55% to 105.89 million tons, 26.77% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory pressure is still large [1][6]. - The real - estate industry is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, the investment, new construction, and completion areas of real - estate decreased significantly year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion further declined [1][5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to study price competition cost standards, which gave some boost to bulk commodities. However, the expected decline in the production rates of some enterprises led to only a limited decrease in PVC output, and the futures warehouse receipts remained at a high level [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PVC2601 contract decreased by 1.71% to 4426 yuan per ton, with a low of 4413 yuan per ton and a high of 4503 yuan per ton. The trading volume increased by 7370 lots to 997451 lots [2]. - Basis: On December 5, the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4410 yuan per ton. The basis of the V2601 contract was - 16 yuan per ton, strengthening by 49 yuan per ton, and the basis was at a slightly low - neutral level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The production rates of some enterprises such as Hangjin Technology and Sichuan Jinlu decreased. New production capacities include Wanhua Chemical's 50 - million - ton - per - year plant in production since August, Tianjin Bohua's 40 - million - ton - per - year plant expected to be stably producing by the end of September, Qingdao Gulf's 20 - million - ton - per - year plant close to full - load operation, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua's 30 - million - ton - per - year plants operating at low loads after commissioning [4]. - Demand: The real - estate industry improvement needs time. From January to October 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 7356.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area, new construction area, and completion area also decreased significantly year - on - year. As of the week of November 30, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.17% month - on - month but remained near the lowest level in recent years [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of December 4, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.55% to 105.89 million tons, 26.77% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory was still at a high level [6].