有色金属周度报告-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, alumina is expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner, and it is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices while being cautious about the ebb of bullish macro - sentiment. In the long - term, Shanghai aluminum will operate with a bullish bias under the quantitative easing environment, and alumina will operate in a weak and volatile manner without large - scale production cuts [58][59]. - For copper, in the short - term, it is treated as a breakthrough market. In the long - term, there is long - term positive support for demand, and it is advisable to take a long - term bullish position [62][63][64]. - Regarding lithium carbonate, in the short - term, it may fluctuate repeatedly at high levels, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of mines. In the long - term, energy storage provides strong demand support, and it is advisable to make long - term bullish allocations [66][67][68]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures price of the main contract CU2601 rose from 87430 to 92780, a weekly increase of 5350 (6.12%), and the spot price rose from 87340 to 91180, a weekly increase of 3840 (4.40%) [3]. - Aluminum: The futures price of the main contract AL2602 rose from 21650 to 22400, a weekly increase of 750 (3.46%), and the spot price rose from 21440 to 22010, a weekly increase of 570 (2.66%) [3]. - Zinc: The futures price of the main contract ZN2601 rose from 22425 to 23305, a weekly increase of 880 (3.92%), and the spot price rose from 22370 to 22990, a weekly increase of 620 (2.77%) [3]. - Lead: The futures price of the main contract PB2601 rose from 17090 to 17290, a weekly increase of 200 (1.17%), and the spot price rose from 16975 to 17175, a weekly increase of 200 (1.18%) [3]. - Nickel: The futures price of the main contract NI2601 rose from 117080 to 117790, a weekly increase of 710 (0.61%), and the spot price rose from 119500 to 120050, a weekly increase of 550 (0.46%) [3]. - Alumina: The futures price of the main contract AO2601 fell from 2707 to 2555, a weekly decrease of 152 (-5.62%), and the spot price remained unchanged at 2870 (0.00%) [3]. - Industrial silicon: The futures price of the main contract SI2601 fell from 9130 to 8805, a weekly decrease of 325 (-3.56%), and the spot price remained unchanged at 9600 (0.00%) [3]. - Lithium carbonate: The futures price of the main contract LC2605 fell from 96420 to 92160, a weekly decrease of 4260 (-4.42%), and the spot price rose from 92500 to 94000, a weekly increase of 1500 (1.62%) [3]. - Polysilicon: The futures price of the main contract PS2601 fell from 56425 to 55510, a weekly decrease of 915 (-1.62%), and the spot price remained unchanged at 52300 (0.00%) [3]. 3.2 Copper Inventory and Processing Fees - As of December 5, the SHFE copper inventory was 88,900 tons, a decrease of 9000 tons (-9.19%) from last week; the LME copper inventory was 162,800 tons, an increase of 5600 tons (+3.56%); the COMEX copper inventory was 435,800 tons, an increase of 9800 tons (+2.08%) [14][19]. - As of December 4, the copper concentrate spot TC was -42.7 dollars/ton, with a slight weekly decline, and the RC was -4.27 cents/pound, indicating continued tightness at the mine end [22]. 3.3 Lithium and Aluminum Raw Materials and Supply - As of December 5, the lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index was 1154 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 4 dollars/ton [24]. - As of December 5, the bauxite port inventory was 27.91 million tons, a decrease of 160,500 tons from last week. As of the end of October, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 24.53 million tons, at a historical high [32]. - As of December 5, the weekly operating rate of alumina enterprises was 86.2%, a slight increase, and the weekly output was 1.861 million tons, also increasing. The total alumina inventory was 5.004 million tons, an increase of 62,000 tons from last week [39]. - As of the end of October, China's primary aluminum production was 3.766 million tons, the import volume was 248,400 tons, and the inventory was 618,000 tons. As of the end of November, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 98.21%, remaining at a high level [46]. - As of December 5, the LME aluminum inventory was 530,900 tons, a decrease of 8200 tons from last Friday; the SHFE aluminum inventory was 123,600 tons, an increase of 8400 tons from last Friday; the COMEX aluminum inventory was 1946 tons, a decrease of 3723 tons from last week. The overall inventory of the three major global exchanges showed a de - stocking trend [48][49]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metal Demand - In October 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4% [51]. - In October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% [52]. - From January to October, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.55253 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.7%. The new housing start area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. Among them, the new residential start area was 359.52 million square meters, a decrease of 19.3%. The housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9%. Among them, the residential completion area was 248.66 million square meters, a decrease of 18.9% [54]. - As of the end of October, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. Among them, the installed solar power generation capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%; the installed wind power capacity was 590 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.4%. In October, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 12.6 GW, a month - on - month increase of 30.4% compared with 9.66 GW in September [56]. 3.5 Strategy Recommendations - Aluminum: In the short - term, alumina operates weakly and volatilely, and it is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices. In the long - term, Shanghai aluminum operates with a bullish bias, and alumina operates weakly and volatilely without large - scale production cuts [58][59]. - Copper: In the short - term, it is treated as a breakthrough market. In the long - term, there is long - term positive support for demand, and it is advisable to take a long - term bullish position [62][63][64]. - Lithium carbonate: In the short - term, it may fluctuate repeatedly at high levels, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of mines. In the long - term, energy storage provides strong demand support, and it is advisable to make long - term bullish allocations [66][67][68].