玻璃月报：多条产线冷修，供需矛盾有所缓解-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views Glass Report - In November, multiple glass production lines in China were shut down for maintenance, reducing the daily melting volume by 6,050 tons (equivalent to about 121,000 heavy boxes). However, this did not support glass prices. Market anticipation had been digested, and high inventory led to price - suppressing promotional strategies. The glass market is undervalued, but the real - estate sector's downward pressure persists. Without unexpected changes, a bearish approach to the glass market is recommended [12][13] Soda Ash Report - In November, the soda ash industry's overall operating rate was stable, with high supply pressure. Demand was weak, with downstream enterprises purchasing on - demand and having low acceptance of new quotes. Heavy soda demand was affected by the expected cold - repair of float glass production lines. Due to cost support and industry - wide losses, the decline in spot prices is limited. The upcoming 2.8 - million - ton capacity of the Alxa Phase II project in December may pressure the market. In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate weakly, and a cautious and bearish approach is recommended [56][57] 3. Summary by Directory Glass Report Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of December 5, 2025, the spot price of float glass was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), the main contract closed at 1,010 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the basis was 60 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton week - on - week). The weekly average profit for producing float glass with natural gas was - 223 yuan/ton (up 4.27 yuan/ton), with coal was 6.52 yuan/ton (up 2.02 yuan/ton), and with petroleum coke was 21.36 yuan/ton (up 52.84 yuan/ton). National float glass weekly production was 108.51 tons (down 1.88 tons), with 218 operating lines (down 2) and an operating rate of 73.63%. The downstream deep - processing orders were 10.1 days (up 0.2 days), and the Low - e glass operating rate was 45.40% (down 1.10%). National float glass factory inventory was 59.442 million heavy boxes (down 2.92 million), and Shahe area inventory was 3.6488 million heavy boxes (down 0.5976 million) [12] Futures and Spot Market - As of December 5, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread was - 122 yuan/ton (- 10), the 05 - 09 spread was - 59 yuan/ton (- 3), the 09 - 01 spread was 181 yuan/ton (+ 13), and the open interest was 1.9027 million lots [20] Profit and Cost - As of December 5, 2025, the weekly average profit for producing float glass with natural gas was - 223 yuan/ton (up 4.27 yuan/ton), and the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton). The weekly average profit with coal was 6.52 yuan/ton (up 2.02 yuan/ton), and with petroleum coke was 21.36 yuan/ton (up 52.84 yuan/ton) [26][29] Supply and Demand - As of December 5, 2025, national float glass weekly production was 108.51 tons (down 1.88 tons), with 218 operating lines (down 2) and an operating rate of 73.63%. The downstream deep - processing orders were 10.1 days (up 0.2 days), and the Low - e glass operating rate was 45.40% (down 1.10%). From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters (down 6.80% year - on - year), and in October, it was 61.4721 million square meters (down 19.60% year - on - year). In October, automobile production and sales were 3.3587 million and 3.3221 million vehicles respectively (up 12.09% and 8.82% year - on - year), and from January to October, cumulative production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles [33][36][39][42] Inventory - As of December 5, 2025, national float glass factory inventory was 59.442 million heavy boxes (down 2.92 million), and Shahe area inventory was 3.6488 million heavy boxes (down 0.5976 million) [46] Soda Ash Report Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of December 5, 2025, the spot price of heavy soda in Shahe was 1,132 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton), the main contract closed at 1,162 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton), and the basis was - 30 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week). The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 148.5 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton), and that of the combined - soda process was - 178.5 yuan/ton (up 41.5 yuan/ton). The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 809 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton), the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), the price of raw salt in the Northwest was 215 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,345 yuan/ton (down 86 yuan/ton). The weekly production of soda ash was 70.39 tons (up 0.57 tons), with a capacity utilization rate of 80.74%. Heavy soda production was 38.15 tons (down 0.16 tons), and light soda production was 32.24 tons (up 0.73 tons). The weekly production of float glass was 108.51 tons (down 1.88 tons), with 218 operating lines (down 2) and an operating rate of 73.63%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October was 3.13 million tons. The factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5386 million tons (down 0.0488 million tons), and the inventory - available days were 12.76 days (down 0.40 days) [56] Futures and Spot Market - As of December 5, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 77 yuan/ton (- 22), the 05 - 09 spread was - 60 yuan/ton (+ 9), the 09 - 01 spread was 137 yuan/ton (+ 13), and the open interest was 1.9027 million lots [64] Profit and Cost - As of December 5, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 148.5 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton), and that of the combined - soda process was - 178.5 yuan/ton (up 41.5 yuan/ton). The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 809 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton), the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), the price of raw salt in the Northwest was 215 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,345 yuan/ton (down 86 yuan/ton) [71][74][77] Supply and Demand - As of December 5, 2025, the weekly production of soda ash was 70.39 tons (up 0.57 tons), with a capacity utilization rate of 80.74%. Heavy soda production was 38.15 tons (down 0.16 tons), and light soda production was 32.24 tons (up 0.73 tons). The weekly production of float glass was 108.51 tons (down 1.88 tons), with 218 operating lines (down 2) and an operating rate of 73.63%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October was 3.13 million tons [81][84][87] Inventory - As of December 5, 2025, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5386 million tons (down 0.0488 million tons), and the inventory - available days were 12.76 days (down 0.40 days). Heavy soda factory inventory was 81.08 tons (down 3.60 tons), and light soda factory inventory was 72.78 tons (down 1.28 tons) [91][94]