国债月报：债市预期走弱，关注配置需求支撑-20251205

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The November PMI data shows that both supply and demand have improved, but the manufacturing PMI is still below the boom - bust line, and the service industry has declined significantly, indicating that domestic demand still needs to be boosted. The new policy - based financial tools have not fully offset the impact of the real estate downturn, and the current power of demand recovery is insufficient. The endogenous repair momentum of the economy still needs to be consolidated [11]. - In terms of exports, the October export data was lower than expected, with exports to the US declining while exports to non - US regions maintained resilience. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals. Considering the high economic growth rate in the first three quarters of this year, the pressure to achieve the goal this year is not great, and the policy may focus more on the connection with next year's policies, with less need for additional measures in the fourth quarter [11]. - Overseas, the US dollar liquidity was tight in November. Subsequently, observe the inflation and employment data for indications of a December interest rate cut [11]. - The bond market is currently in a multi - empty intertwined situation with weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, generally maintaining a volatile trend. In the short term, the imbalance between supply and demand and the expectation of the new fund fee regulations have triggered some redemptions in the bond market, but the overall risk is controllable. The rhythm should pay attention to the linkage between stocks and bonds and the impact of liquidity [14]. - In the medium and long term, the bond market should mainly adopt the strategy of buying on dips, as the direction of loose monetary policy and the adjustment trend of capital - intensive industries are difficult to change, and there is still pressure on the economy to stabilize growth [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy Situation: The November PMI shows that the manufacturing and service industries are differentiated. The new policy - based financial tools have not fully offset the real estate downturn. The export to the US declined in October. The policy may focus on next - year's connection. Overseas, pay attention to the December interest rate cut signal [11]. - Liquidity: This week, the central bank conducted 6638 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 15118 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.44% [14]. - Interest Rates: The latest 10 - year Treasury yield is 1.87%, up 2.87 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield is 2.28%, up 9.20 BP week - on - week. The latest 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.11%, up 9.00 BP week - on - week [14]. - Trading Strategy: The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for a 6 - month period, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1, driven by the combination of loose money and the difficulty of credit improvement [16]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Contract Performance: Presented the closing price, annualized premium/discount, and net basis trends of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing price and trading volume trends of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [19][22][25][28]. 3. Main Economic Data Domestic Economy - GDP and PMI: In the third quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations. In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, while the service industry PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points [41]. - Manufacturing PMI Sub - items: In November, the production and new order indices of the manufacturing PMI increased month - on - month, indicating a moderate improvement in both supply and demand [42][47]. - Prices: In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year. The month - on - month data also showed certain changes. The PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed [50]. - Exports: In October 2025, China's import and export data were slightly lower than expected. Exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. Exports to the US declined significantly, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [53]. - Industrial and Consumption Data: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 4.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.9%, showing a slight decline [56]. - Investment and Real Estate: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 1.7%, and the real estate market continued to adjust. In October, the price of second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline [59]. - Real Estate Construction and Sales: In October, the cumulative year - on - year data of the completion end declined, and the sales data of new houses in 30 large - and medium - sized cities weakened [65]. Foreign Economy - US Economy: In the second quarter, the quarterly annualized value of the US GDP was 3033.1 billion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the US CPI and core CPI showed certain changes in year - on - year and month - on - month data [66]. - US Durable Goods and Employment: In September, the order amount of US durable goods was 313.7 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of 7.26%. The seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment population increased by 119,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4% [69]. - US and EU PMI and GDP: In November, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.6. In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter [72]. - Eurozone Economy: In November, the Eurozone CPI increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year. The manufacturing PMI was 49.7, and the service industry PMI was 53.1 [75]. 4. Liquidity - Money Supply and Social Financing: In October, the M1 growth rate was 6.2%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.2%. The social financing increment was 815 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 597 billion yuan. The social financing mainly came from the growth of government bonds, and the supporting role of government bonds in social financing may weaken in the future [80]. - Social Financing Sub - items: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds in social financing slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector was weak. The social financing growth rate of the resident and enterprise sectors was 5.92%, and the government bond growth rate was 19.20% [83]. - MLF and Reverse Repurchase: In November, the MLF balance was 615 billion yuan, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1511.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.44% [86]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rate Changes: Various market interest rates, including repurchase rates, domestic and US Treasury yields, have changed to different degrees, with some showing increases and others showing decreases [89]. - Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Trends: Presented the trends of domestic and foreign bond yields, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, the Fed's target interest rate, and exchange rates (USD/RMB) [92][94][98].