白糖月报：内外价差大幅收窄，短线观望-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, it is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new sugar - crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship will shift from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not show significant improvement. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the general direction remains bearish. However, domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, increasing the difficulty of long - short games and reducing the probability of a trending market. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In November, the international raw sugar price rebounded. As of November 28, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was 15.21 cents per pound, up 0.79 cents per pound from the previous month, a 5.48% increase. The raw sugar 3 - 5 month spread was 0.51 cents per pound, up 0.12 cents per pound from the previous month; the London white sugar 3 - 5 month spread was $5.2 per ton, up $2.8 per ton from the previous month; the raw - white spread of the March contract was $100 per ton, up $8 per ton from the previous month. Domestically, the Zhengzhou sugar price declined slightly in November. As of November 28, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5400 yuan per ton, down 83 yuan per ton from the previous month, a 1.51% decrease. The spot price in Guangxi was 5450 yuan per ton, down 230 yuan per ton from the previous month; the basis was 50 yuan per ton, down 147 yuan per ton from the previous month; the 1 - 5 spread was 73 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan per ton from the previous month; the out - of - quota spot import profit was 420 yuan per ton, down 439 yuan per ton from the previous month [9]. - Industry News: As of December 4, 2025/26, 44 sugar mills in Guangxi had started crushing, 21 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 346,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 175,500 tons. As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugar cane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield at the end of November was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%. Sugar production was 983,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% [9]. - View and Strategy: As mentioned above, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - foreign spreads, raw - white spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios. These charts cover various time periods and contracts from 2021 to 2025, providing a comprehensive view of the spread trends in the sugar market [17][20][25]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - National Production: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [41]. - Sugar Imports: Charts display the monthly and annual cumulative imports of sugar, syrup, and premixed powder in China from 20/21 to 2025 [44]. - National Sales: Charts present the monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 [49]. - National Industrial Inventory: Charts show the monthly industrial inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 and the inventory in Guangxi's three - party warehouses [52]. 3.4 International Market Situation - Brazilian Central - Southern Production: Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, the cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil from 21/22 to 25/26 [57]. - Indian Production: Charts present the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 [62]. - Thai Production: Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 [65]. - Brazilian Shipment Volume: Charts display the sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil from 2022 to 2025 and the sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports from 21/22 to 25/26 [68].