Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The US soybean futures price fluctuates narrowly, and the market still focuses on the actual implementation of US soybean exports to China. The domestic double - meal market generally maintains a weak and volatile trend. Overseas, although Chinese buyers have resumed purchasing US soybeans, they will continue to buy Brazilian soybeans. Domestically, the spot market shows a stalemate situation between supply and demand, and the spot price shows a certain resistance to decline. [40] - The rapeseed meal market has weak trading, and the core focus is on the arrival and customs clearance process of Australian rapeseed, which directly affects the short - term supply expectation. [40] - In the short term, the market is in a supply - demand stalemate. Soybean meal focuses on the actual implementation of US soybean exports to China, while rapeseed meal focuses on the arrival and customs clearance of Australian rapeseed. In the long - term, changes in trade relations are still the key driving force for the supply side of double - meal. [40][41] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Price Trends - Soybean Meal: The closing price of the futures main contract M2601 on December 4, 2025, was 3,040, a weekly decrease of 15 or 0.49%. The spot price was 3,020, a weekly increase of 10 or 0.33%. [4] - Rapeseed Meal: The closing price of the futures main contract RM601 was 2,422, a weekly decrease of 47 or 1.90%. The spot price was 2,500, a weekly decrease of 50 or 1.96%. [4] - Corn: The closing price of the futures main contract C2601 was 2,287, a weekly increase of 44 or 1.96%. The spot price was 2,295, a weekly increase of 20 or 0.88%. [4] - Pig: The closing price of the futures main contract LH2601 was 11,385, a weekly decrease of 200 or 1.73%. The spot price was 11.23, a weekly decrease of 0.04 or 0.35%. [4] - Egg: The closing price of the futures main contract JD2601 was 3,138, a weekly decrease of 144 or 4.39%. The spot price was 3.06, a weekly increase of 0.07 or 2.34%. [4] Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - Weather: In the next 6 - 10 days, the temperatures in the main soybean - producing states in the US are all lower than normal, and the rainfall is mostly higher. [9] - US Soybeans: As of the week ending October 30, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year was 1.2485 million tons, a 14% decrease from the previous week and a 19% increase from the average of the previous four weeks, with net sales to the Chinese mainland of 232,000 tons. [9] - Brazil: On December 4, Brazilian government data showed that Brazil's soybean exports in November increased by 64% year - on - year to 4.2 million tons. [9] - Argentina: The estimated soybean output in Argentina in the 2025/26 season is 46.9 million tons, the same as the previous forecast, but the early - season sowing is continuously delayed, and the soil moisture in the Pampas planting belt is declining. [9] Supply - Imports: In October, China imported no soybeans from the US for the second consecutive month, but the total soybean imports reached a record high of 9.48 million tons. Imports from Brazil were 7.12 million tons, a 28.8% year - on - year increase, accounting for 75.1% of the total imports, and imports from Argentina were 1.57 million tons, a 15.4% year - on - year increase. Since the beginning of 2025, China's soybean imports from the US have reached 16.82 million tons, a 11.5% year - on - year increase. [9] Demand - Pressing: Recently, the soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills is relatively high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate, approaching the high level of 1.2 million tons. It is expected that the soybean arrival volume in December will decrease slightly, with a total monthly pressing volume of about 8.6 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills at the end of the month will be around 0.9 million tons. [9] - Transaction: On December 4, the soybean meal transaction of domestic mainstream oil mills decreased. The trading volume was 89,800 tons, a decrease of 75,900 tons from the previous day. The spot trading volume was 55,800 tons, a decrease of 17,900 tons from the previous day, and the basis trading volume was 34,000 tons, a decrease of 58,000 tons from the previous day. The average transaction price was 3,092.74 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76 yuan/ton from the previous day. [9] Inventory - Oil Mill Inventory: In the 48th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased to 7.3396 million tons, a 2.65% increase from the previous week and a 47.57% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory increased to 1.2032 million tons, a 4.49% increase from the previous week and a 44.18% increase year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts decreased to 3.881 million tons, a 15.54% decrease from the previous week and a 5.28% decrease year - on - year. [9] Supply - Side Import - As of December 4, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was $476.00 per ton, a decrease of $14 per ton from the previous week, and the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was $494.00 per ton, a decrease of $2 per ton from the previous week. [17] Supply - Side Pressing - As of the week of December 4, the soybean pressing profit was - 58.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.90 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of November 28, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2568 million tons, a decrease of 68,600 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 57%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week. [25] Inventory - Side - As of December 4, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.3868 million tons, a decrease of 4,400 tons from the previous week, and it was at an extremely high level in the past five years seasonally. As of November 28, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0734 million tons, an increase of 16,900 tons from the previous week, and it was at an extremely high level in the past five years seasonally. [29] Demand - Side - As of November 28, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal of domestic mainstream oil mills was 100,800 tons, a decrease of 131,900 tons from the previous week, and it was at a moderately high level in the past five years seasonally. [33] Rapeseed Meal Supply - Side - The content provides historical data on rapeseed import volume, rapeseed meal production, and expected rapeseed arrival volume in China, but no new summary data is given. [36] Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory - Side - The content provides historical data on rapeseed meal inventory, supply, demand,提货 volume, apparent consumption, and trading volume in China, but no new summary data is given. [38] Strategy Recommendation - Short - Term: The market is in a supply - demand stalemate. Soybean meal focuses on the actual implementation of US soybean exports to China, and rapeseed meal focuses on the arrival and customs clearance of Australian rapeseed. [40] - Long - Term: Changes in trade relations are still the key driving force for the supply side of double - meal. [41] Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The focus is on the weather in the producing areas, US soybean exports to China, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans. [42]
饲料养殖周度报告-20251205
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo·2025-12-05 13:31