Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes, but the profit of terminal steel mills is under pressure, and the hot metal production continues to decrease, leading to an increase in the surplus of coking coal. The inventory pressure of upstream mines is gradually emerging, and the short - term coal price will still be under pressure. The supply of coke is expected to increase, and the coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. The spot price of coke may face more than 2 rounds of price reduction pressure [2]. - The JiaoMei 01 contract has a clear short - term bearish trend, and the short positions at the previous high can be held. The far - month 05 contract has medium - to - long - term long - allocation value. For coke, the current main contract price has factored in 4 - 5 rounds of price cuts, and it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Coking coal supply: Domestic mine production decreased slightly this week. The impact of over - production inspection and environmental protection inspection continues. In December, the domestic mine operation is expected to be generally stable, and the possibility of a significant increase in coking coal production is low. The Mongolian coal at the port actively cleared customs this week. The import profit of coking coal has narrowed, and the subsequent arrival of overseas coal is expected to decline [2]. - Coking coal demand: Terminal steel mills' profit is under pressure, hot metal production continues to decrease, and coking enterprises actively control the raw material procurement rhythm, resulting in increased inventory pressure on upstream mines [2]. - Coke supply: Due to the decline in the cost of coking coal, the immediate coking profit has recovered, and the subsequent coke supply is expected to increase [2]. - Coke demand: With the gradual recovery of coking enterprise operation, coke may face inventory accumulation pressure, and attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of mainstream steel mills [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: The market is in a downward relay [8]. - Price Range: JM2601 operates in the range of 1000 - 1100, 2605 in the range of 1100 - 1350; J2601 operates in the range of 1500 - 1700, 2605 in the range of 1650 - 1900 [8]. - Basis Strategy: The basis of coking coal has slightly narrowed, and the basis of coke is currently at a moderately high valuation. It is recommended that industrial customers with coke inventory speed up sales [9]. - Calendar Spread Strategy: The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal fluctuated little this week, and the 1 - 5 positive spread of coke strengthened. The 1 - 5 positive spread of coke is expected to continue to strengthen [9]. - Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy: None [10]. - Option Strategy: None [10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Coking Coal Purchase Management: It is recommended that industrial customers with purchase plans maintain normal raw material inventory and wait for the spot valuation to fall before purchasing [12]. - Coke Sales Management: It is recommended that industrial customers with coke inventory speed up sales [12]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Coking Coal Supply and Inventory: The output of some coking coal mines and coal washing plants has changed slightly. The total inventory of coking coal samples has increased by 42.97 tons compared with last week [13]. - Coke Supply and Inventory: The production of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants has increased slightly. The total inventory of coke samples has decreased by 1.69 tons compared with last week [13]. - Coal - Coke Futures Price and Spread: The price and spread of coking coal and coke futures contracts have changed to varying degrees [14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The social inventory of steel products has continued to decline, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased. The profitability of steel mills has improved [20][21]. - Negative Information: The enthusiasm of coking plants for restocking is poor, and the inventory pressure of mine coking coal has increased. The coking enterprise operation rate has increased, and the number of downstream steel - mill overhauls has increased, deteriorating the supply - demand structure of coke [21]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Next Monday, pay attention to China's November trade balance in US dollars. - Next Wednesday, pay attention to China's November M2 money supply annual rate and November CPI annual rate. - Next Thursday, pay attention to the upper limit of the Fed's interest rate decision as of December 10 and the number of initial jobless claims in the US as of December 6 [22][25]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral Trend: The JiaoMei 2601 contract is oscillating at the bottom this week, with a clear short - term bearish trend. The coke 2601 contract has a driving force to rebound and repair the basis [23]. - Calendar Spread Structure: The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal fluctuated little this week, and the 1 - 5 positive spread of coke strengthened [32]. - Basis Structure: The basis of coking coal has slightly narrowed, and the current basis of coke is at a moderately high valuation. It is recommended that industrial customers with coke inventory speed up sales [41]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The profit of coking coal mines has declined from a high level, the immediate coking profit is expected to shrink marginally, and the loss situation of steel mills has eased [49]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The clearance enthusiasm at the 288 port has significantly increased, but the long - term trade profit of Mongolian coal has shrunk significantly. The import profit of overseas coal has narrowed, and the subsequent arrival of overseas coal is expected to decline [51][56]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - In the fourth quarter, the production increase space of coking coal mines is limited. It is expected that the average weekly output of coking coal in December will be about 9.67 million tons, and the net import volume will be 10 - 10.2 million tons [78]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - Recently, the profit of steel mills has shrunk, and the number of steel mills planning overhauls has increased. It is estimated that the daily average hot metal output in December will be 2.29 million tons [81]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply and demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke from Week 40 to Week 51 in 2025 are estimated, and the changes in supply, demand, and inventory are predicted [85].
南华期货煤焦产业周报：市场预期较差，下游持续观望-20251205
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-12-05 13:31