三大油脂周度报告-20251205

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of the three major oils showed mixed trends. Palm oil and soybean oil rose by 0.97% and 0.50% respectively, while rapeseed oil fell by 1.42%. In the short - term, palm oil is at risk of volatility as the market awaits the MPOB report; rapeseed oil will fluctuate as Australian rapeseed arrives but needs time for customs clearance and pressing; soybean oil will have narrow fluctuations due to ample supply and lack of drivers. In the medium - to - long - term, palm oil is expected to stabilize and rebound; rapeseed oil's price trend depends on China - Canada trade relations; the cost center of soybean oil is expected to rise [25][26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2605) increased from 8678 to 8762, a weekly increase of 0.97%, and the spot price increased by 2.13%. The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) decreased from 9757 to 9618, a weekly decrease of 1.42%, and the spot price decreased by 0.89%. The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2605) increased from 8040 to 8080, a weekly increase of 0.50%, and the spot price decreased by 0.57% [4] Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of December 4, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 140 yuan/ton (down 48 yuan/ton from the previous week), 427 yuan/ton (up 54 yuan/ton), and 34 yuan/ton (up 44 yuan/ton) respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the YP spread was - 682 yuan/ton (down 300 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7] Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of November 28, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 1.02 million tons (down 0.23 million tons from the previous week), the palm oil factory commercial inventory was 65.35 million tons (down 1.36 million tons), the national soybean oil factory inventory was 117.88 million tons (down 0.11 million tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 184.25 million tons (down 1.7 million tons) [10] Palm Oil Supply - Side - As of December 5, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8864 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the gross profit against the market was - 128 yuan/ton (up 96 yuan/ton). SPPOMA data showed that the Malaysian palm oil production in November was 1.95 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38% [13] Soybean Oil Supply - Side - As of November 28, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 956.70 million tons (up 14.2 million tons from the previous week), the main oil factory soybean inventory was 733.96 million tons (up 18.97 million tons), and the oil factory operating rate was 57% (down 2% from the previous week). As of December 4, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 531.40 yuan/ton (up 1.8 yuan/ton) [16] Rapeseed Oil Supply - Side - As of November 28, 2025, the total oil factory rapeseed inventory was 0.1 million tons (the same as the previous week), and the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2260.60 yuan/ton (up 153.8 yuan/ton) [19] Demand - Side - On December 4, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil factories was 300 tons, and that of first - grade soybean oil was 3500 tons. The POGO spread was 422.74 US dollars/ton (up 46.75 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil was 8.05 million tons [22] Three Major Oil Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The Trump administration is considering extending the restrictions on imported raw materials and imported biodiesel. The US restructuring of the Energy Bureau and the revocation of renewable energy - related departments have limited the boost to US biofuel policies. The market is concerned about the progress of China - Canada trade relations. - Abroad: US soybeans are affected by South American weather and US soybean exports. South American weather in southern Brazil and Argentina will be dry before mid - December. Malaysian palm oil inventory in November may rise to a six - and - a - half - year high due to falling exports and record - high production. - Import and Pressing: The oil factory operating rate decreased by 2% from the previous week, and soybean inventory increased. The oil factory rapeseed inventory remained at 0.1 million tons. - Inventory: As of November 28, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory, palm oil factory commercial inventory, and national soybean oil factory inventory all decreased. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends, with palm oil rising 2.13%, rapeseed oil falling 0.89%, and soybean oil falling 0.57% [23] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Wait for the MPOB report for palm oil and pay attention to volatility risks; rapeseed oil will fluctuate as Australian rapeseed arrives; soybean oil will have narrow fluctuations due to ample supply. - Medium - to - long - term: Palm oil is expected to stabilize and rebound; closely monitor China - Canada trade relations for rapeseed oil; the cost center of soybean oil is expected to rise [25][26] Next Week's Focus and Risk Warnings - Biofuel policy, China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data, and weather [27]