能化板块周度报告-20251205

Report Title - Can-chemical Sector Weekly Report [1] - Polyester Sector Data Weekly Report [4] - Methanol and Polyethylene Data Weekly Report [36] Report Date - December 5, 2025 [2] Report Analysts - Zhang Weiwei, Qualification No.: F0269806, Investment Consulting No.: Z0002796 [3] - Bao Yuhong, Qualification No.: F03149670 [3] 1. Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Kazakhstan's daily oil and gas condensate production decreased by about 6% to 1.9 million barrels per day in the first two days of December after a drone attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea loading facilities [5] - Russia and the US held talks, but no compromise solution was reached on the Ukraine issue, and the return time of Russian crude oil supply remains unclear [5] - Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its main crude oil grade for Asia to the lowest level in five years, signaling weak demand in the Far East [5] - Russian President Putin visited India to strengthen energy relations, and Russia plans to increase oil supply and avoid Western sanctions [6] - US refined oil demand decreased year-on-year, with gasoline demand down 1.2%, distillate demand down 2.0%, and kerosene-type jet fuel demand down 1.9% in the four weeks ending November 28 [6] - US crude oil inventories increased by 574,000 barrels to 427.503 million barrels in the week ending November 28, while refinery utilization rate increased by 1.8 percentage points to 94.1% [6] 2. Futures and Spot Prices 2.1 Polyester Sector | Futures | 2025/12/4 | 2025/11/27 | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Spot | 2025/12/4 | 2025/11/27 | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous ($/barrel) | 59.7 | 59.12 | 0.58 | 0.98% | Naphtha ($/ton) | 559.75 | 566 | -6.25 | -1.10% | | PX601 (CNY/ton) | 6906 | 6718 | 188 | 2.80% | PX CFR: Taiwan (CNY/ton) | 6891.71 | 6741.19 | 150.52 | 2.23% | | TA601 (CNY/ton) | 4724 | 4632 | 92 | 1.99% | PTA Spot Benchmark Price (CNY/ton) | 4685 | 4615 | 70 | 1.52% | | EG601 (CNY/ton) | 3826 | 3873 | -47 | -1.21% | Ethylene Glycol East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 3813 | 3889 | -76 | -1.95% | | PF602 (CNY/ton) | 6268 | 6162 | 106 | 1.72% | Polyester Staple Fiber East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 6330 | 6280 | 50 | 0.80% | | PR603 (CNY/ton) | 5794 | 5724 | 70 | 1.22% | Polyester Bottle Chip East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 5750 | 5700 | 50 | 0.88% | 2.2 Methanol and Polyethylene | Futures | 2025/12/5 | 2025/11/28 | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Spot | 2025/12/5 | 2025/11/28 | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 (CNY/ton) | 2077 | 2135 | -58 | -2.72% | Methanol (Taicang) (CNY/ton) | 2121 | 2083 | 38 | 1.81% | | MA Basis (CNY/ton) | 8 | -25 | 33 | 132.00% | Methanol CFR ($/ton) | 248 | 242 | 6 | 2.48% | | L2601 (CNY/ton) | 6674 | 6789 | -115 | -1.52% | LLDPE (CNY/ton) | 6700 | 6830 | -130 | -1.90% | | L Basis (CNY/ton) | 26 | 41 | -15 | -0.22% | HDPE (CNY/ton) | 7380 | 7380 | 0 | 0.00% | | | | | | | LDPE (CNY/ton) | 8570 | 8670 | -100 | -1.15% | 3. Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Polyester Sector - PX: Domestic supply decreased slightly this week, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate at 89.21%, down 0.53% from last week. Asian PX also decreased slightly, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate at 79.12%, down 0.28 percentage points. Supply is expected to remain stable next week, and there is support at the bottom [15] - PTA: Supply increased slightly this week, with the weekly capacity utilization rate at 73.81%, up 1.89 percentage points from last week. Factory inventory increased, while social inventory continued to decline. Supply is expected to remain stable next week [19] - Ethylene Glycol: Supply increased slightly this week, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate at 65.42%, up 2.75 percentage points. Port inventory increased. There are maintenance plans for some devices in December, and the pressure of new device production is postponed [21] - Polyester End: The weekly average operating rate was 87.47%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week [22] - Terminal: Orders continued to decline, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms continued to decline [30] 3.2 Methanol - Supply: As of December 4, the domestic operating rate was 89.09%, down 0.002 percentage points from the previous period. Production was 2.0234 million tons, down 50 tons from the previous period. There are few device changes this week, and the operating rate and production only fluctuate slightly [44] - Demand: The MTO operating rate increased slightly to 90.82% due to the load increase of Qinghai Salt Lake. Ningbo Fude has a major maintenance plan on December 7, and the operating rate is expected to decrease in the next period. Traditional downstream is still in the off-season, and the downstream profit margin is squeezed [47] - Inventory: As of December 3, port inventory was 1.3494 million tons, down 1.4 tons from the previous period, and inland inventory was 361,500 tons, down 12,400 tons from the previous period. The inventory in both places decreased, but the port inventory decline slowed down [50] 3.3 Plastic - Supply: As of December 4, the domestic operating rate was 84.05%, down 0.46 percentage points from the previous period. Production was 681,100 tons, down 3,700 tons from the previous period. There were some device maintenance and return this week, and the production and operating rate decreased. Next week, some devices are expected to return, and some devices will be under maintenance [53] - Demand: As of December 4, the downstream operating rate was 43.76%, down 0.54 percentage points from the previous period. The demand for shed film has entered the off-season, and the order of packaging film has decreased marginally. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline [56] - Inventory: As of December 3, social inventory was 486,400 tons, up 15,300 tons from the previous period, and the inventory of two major oil companies was 384,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from the previous period. Enterprises are still in the de-stocking strategy, and the inventory has shifted [59] 4. Strategy Recommendations 4.1 Polyester Sector - Short - term: The supply pressure of PX and PTA is not large, and polyester demand remains stable, with support at the bottom. However, the terminal is weakening, restricting the rebound momentum. Ethylene glycol is in a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the implementation of device maintenance [34] - Long - term: Demand drive is insufficient, and supply changes dominate the market rhythm. PX and PTA are relatively strong, while ethylene glycol is weak [34] 4.2 Methanol - Short - term: The boost from gas restriction news has ended, and high supply and high inventory restrict the upward space of the market. With the expected weakening of demand, it is expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust [60] - Long - term: Iranian gas restriction has been implemented, and imports are expected to decrease from mid - December to next year. However, demand recovery is weak, and it may fluctuate widely [61] 4.3 Plastic - Short - term: The supply pressure has decreased slightly, but production is still at a high level. Demand is in the off - season and weakening. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [62] - Long - term: Although there is a maintenance plan for Sinochem Quanzhou in December, new production capacity is continuously released, and demand is expected to weaken. It is expected to continue to be weak [62] 5. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warnings 5.1 Polyester Sector - Changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation, cost fluctuations, macro - market sentiment, and the operation of upstream and downstream devices [35] 5.2 Methanol - High inventory pressure, unloading of foreign vessels, sustainability of olefin external procurement gap, and macro - market sentiment [61] 5.3 Plastic - Oil price fluctuations, inventory de - stocking, device maintenance, and downstream demand trends [63]