我农产品日报（2025 年12月5日）-20251205

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating upward [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Oils: Oscillating [1] - Eggs: Oscillating [1] - Pigs: Oscillating upward [2] 2. Core Views - Corn: This week, the near - month 2601 contract of corn led the rise, with the far - month contracts following. The 1 - month contract reduced positions, and funds shifted to the 3 - month and 5 - month contracts. The futures price broke the oscillation and resumed the upward trend. The high purchase price of the Harbin warehouse of China Grain Reserves Corporation supported the price in Heilongjiang. The futures increase led to an upward adjustment of the northern port quotation. The prices of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong, Hebei, and Henan showed different trends. The spot price of corn continued to be strong, and the futures price ended the consolidation and broke upward. In December, be vigilant about the continuous adjustment of corn futures and spot quotes and pay attention to the impact of policy expectations on prices [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose slightly on Thursday. The US Department of Agriculture's export sales report showed that as of October 30, the net weekly sales of US soybeans were 1.2485 million tons, a 14% decrease from the previous week and a 19% increase from the four - week average. China made its first purchase of 2025 soybeans. Brazil exported 4.197 million tons in November. The rapeseed output in Canada was higher than expected. The domestic protein meal continued to oscillate narrowly, with the near - month performance weaker than the far - month. The spot price of soybean meal continued to oscillate, and the basis quotation rose slightly. The strategy is to think in an oscillating way, use a unilateral range idea, short volatility, and conduct inter - month reverse arbitrage [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil continued to fall on Thursday. The market digested the negative news of rising inventory. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in November might reach a six - and - a - half - year high. The spot prices of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil both fell, and the price difference between them narrowed. Domestic oil prices decreased, with rapeseed oil falling more than palm oil and soybean oil. The spot supply was sufficient, and the terminal demand was weak, suppressing the price. The strategy is to sell call options and participate in the futures market in the short - term [1]. - Eggs: On Thursday, the egg futures oscillated downward in the morning and then rebounded. The main 2601 contract closed flat, and the 2603 contract rose 0.29%. The spot price of eggs decreased slightly. The terminal market purchased as needed, and the procurement enthusiasm of downstream sectors was average. The market was optimistic about future capacity elimination. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and be vigilant about the risk of the futures price callback due to the smaller - than - expected capacity reduction. Continuously pay attention to the changes in the replenishment and elimination willingness of the breeding end [1]. - Pigs: This week, the near - and far - month contracts of pigs continued to oscillate. At the beginning of the week, the positions of the 2601 contract decreased, and funds shifted to the 2607 and 2609 contracts. The 2609 contract was relatively strong. The spot price of pigs declined. The supply pressure of medium - and large - sized pigs in Northeast China increased, and the price support weakened. Technically, the contradiction between the weak spot and the strong expectation in the pig market continued. From December to before the Spring Festival, the long and short factors of sufficient supply and improving demand were intertwined, and the far - month quotation of pigs was expected to continue the oscillating and slightly strong performance [2]. 3. Market Information - As of November 26, the national ex - factory price of pigs was 12.09 yuan/kg, a 1.23% decrease from November 19; the main wholesale market price of corn was 2.28 yuan/kg, the same as on November 19; the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.3, a 1.3% decrease from November 19 [3]. - On December 4, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 128.52, up 0.36 points from the previous day; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 131.11, up 0.42 points from the previous day. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.65 yuan/kg, a 0.5% decrease from the previous day; beef was 66.32 yuan/kg, a 0.2% decrease; mutton was 62.39 yuan/kg, a 0.7% decrease; eggs were 7.47 yuan/kg, a 0.7% increase [3]. - The price - holding mentality of the breeding end loosened. The overall market supply was abundant, and the terminal demand lacked obvious increase. The pig price further declined, and the breeding loss continued to expand. In the fourth week of November 2025, the national ex - factory price of pigs was 12.09 yuan/kg, a 1.23% decrease from the previous period, reaching the lowest level in 5 weeks. The national pig - to - feed ratio was 4.63, a 0.86% decrease month - on - month. According to the current price and cost, the expected loss per head of pig breeding in the future piglet fattening mode was 247.43 yuan [4]. 4. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: There are spread charts for multiple varieties such as corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, soybean 1 - 5, soybean meal 1 - 5, etc. [5][6][7] - Contract Basis: There are basis charts for multiple varieties such as corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, etc. [13][14][17] 5. Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' best futures analyst selection for many years. She led the team to win the title of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019 and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2023 [27]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' best futures analyst selection for many years. Her team won the title of the most potential agricultural product futures R & D team of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2013 and the top ten R & D teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019, and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2023 [27]. - Kong Hailan, an analyst of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in the top ten R & D teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019 and won the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2023 [27].