PVC月报：低估值强成本，难以抵抗弱基本面-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC industry is currently facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals. Even though the valuation has dropped to a historical low and the Indian import policy has loosened, it is difficult to change the supply shock caused by large - scale production this year. - The industry has not seen a substantial large - scale production cut. The trading logic is dominated by the expectation of weak fundamentals. - In the medium term, after the new device is put into production, the supply - demand pattern is poor. The real estate demand continues to decline, and it is necessary to rely on export growth or the clearance of old devices to digest the domestic excess production capacity. - In the current situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand, the domestic demand is poor, and it is difficult to reverse the pattern of oversupply. Before the industry makes a substantial production cut, the main idea is to short on rallies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost and Profit: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 2,905 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 75 yuan/ton; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 870 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 70 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has further declined to a historical low, and the profit of ethylene production has continued to be low. The overall valuation pressure is small [11]. - Supply: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 80.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2%. Among them, the utilization rate of calcium carbide method is 83.6%, a month - on - month increase of 6.2%; the utilization rate of ethylene method is 72.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8%. The maintenance volume last month remained stable, the average capacity utilization rate remained high, and new devices released production. The supply pressure continued from October, and the daily average output continued to reach new highs. This month, the expected maintenance intensity is reduced, and Gansu Yaowang will release production, so the supply pressure is expected to further increase [11]. - Demand: In terms of exports, the export volume in October decreased slightly, mainly due to the seasonal decline in exports to India. Currently, India's BIS certification policy has been cancelled, and it is expected that the anti - dumping tax rate will not be implemented, so the export pressure of China has been greatly reduced. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries have continued to rise. The load of pipes is 38.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%; the load of films is 73.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%; the load of profiles is 36.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. The overall downstream load is 49.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. The overall downstream operation has begun to decline gradually and will enter the off - season [11]. - Inventory: The in - factory inventory is 323,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons; the social inventory is 1.043 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,000 tons; the overall inventory is 1.366 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons; the warehouse receipts continue to rise. Currently, it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. With the demand gradually entering the off - season and the supply remaining at a high level, the inventory accumulation is expected to continue [11]. - Summary: Last month, the trading of PVC was mainly based on weak fundamentals. Even though the valuation level has dropped to a historical low and the Indian import policy has loosened, it is difficult to change the supply shock caused by large - scale production this year. The inventory is difficult to reduce before the off - season, and the industry has not seen a substantial large - scale production cut. The expectation of weak fundamentals dominates the trading logic. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historical low level, and the short - term valuation pressure is small. However, the maintenance volume on the supply side is small, the production is at a historical high, and new devices are releasing production. On the downstream side, domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. In terms of exports, India's BIS policy has been revoked, and it is expected that the anti - dumping tax rate will not be implemented, so it is expected to maintain a high export volume to India. However, it is still difficult to digest the excess production capacity at present. The calcium carbide on the cost side has strengthened, and caustic soda has declined. In the medium term, after the new device is put into production, the supply - demand pattern is poor, and the real estate demand continues to decline. It is necessary to rely on export growth or the clearance of old devices to digest the domestic excess production capacity. Overall, in the current situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand, the domestic demand is poor, and it is difficult to reverse the pattern of oversupply. Before the industry makes a substantial production cut, the main idea is to short on rallies [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report provides multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the PVC term structure, the price of PVC East China SG - 5, the spot basis, the 1 - 5 spread, the active contract position, the active contract trading volume, the total position, and the total trading volume, but no specific text analysis is provided [15][17][20][24][26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: The chlor - alkali integration profit has declined to a historical low level, and the valuation pressure is small [42]. - Inventory: The report provides multiple charts related to PVC inventory, including in - factory inventory, ethylene - method in - factory inventory, calcium carbide - method in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, and warehouse receipts, but no specific text analysis is provided [32][34][38]. 3.4 Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have started to rise. The price of Wuhai calcium carbide has increased by 100 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the price of Shandong calcium carbide has increased by 75 yuan/ton month - on - month [11][49]. - The price of semi - coke has continued to rise, caustic soda has declined, and ethylene has remained weak [52]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, the capacity investment intensity is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. A total of 2.5 million tons/year of new capacity is expected to be put into production, including 80,000 tons/year of calcium carbide method and 1.7 million tons/year of ethylene method [61][66]. - The capacity utilization rate of PVC is 80.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2%. Among them, the utilization rate of calcium carbide method is 83.6%, a month - on - month increase of 6.2%; the utilization rate of ethylene method is 72.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% [11]. 3.6 Demand Side - Exports: In October, the export volume decreased slightly, mainly due to the seasonal decline in exports to India. Currently, India's BIS certification policy has been cancelled, and it is expected that the anti - dumping tax rate will not be implemented, so the export pressure of China has been greatly reduced [11]. - Downstream Operation: The operating rates of the three major downstream industries have continued to rise. The load of pipes is 38.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%; the load of films is 73.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%; the load of profiles is 36.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. The overall downstream load is 49.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. The overall downstream operation has begun to decline gradually and will enter the off - season [11].