Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially bottoming out crude oil prices. With the increase in the BZN spread and EB non - integrated plant profits, the overall valuation is moderately high. Amid the narrowing supply of pure benzene, styrene production continues to decline. As the seasonal off - peak season arrives, the profits of downstream three S products are at historically low levels, providing weak upward support. In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Policy: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially bottoming out crude oil prices [11]. - Valuation: Styrene has seen monthly declines (cost > futures > spot), with a strengthening basis, a strengthening BZN spread, and rising EB non - integrated plant profits [11]. - Cost: The spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 1.21%, and the closing price of the active contract dropped by 0.96%. The basis fell by 12 yuan/ton, and pure benzene production reached its lowest level in the same period. Last month, China's pure benzene imports were 496770 tons, a 14.18% month - on - month increase and a 14.50% year - on - year increase, mainly from the Middle East [11]. - Supply: The utilization rate of EB production capacity was 67.29%, a 0.85% month - on - month increase but a 3.73% year - on - year decrease and an 11.81% decrease compared to the five - year average. According to the production plan, the production pressure in Q4 will increase month - on - month, and the supply side may face pressure [11]. - Import and Export: Last month, EB imports were 33120 tons, a 34.31% month - on - month increase and a 58.24% year - on - year increase [11]. - Demand: The weighted operating rate of downstream three S products was 42.34%, a 0.23% month - on - month increase. The PS operating rate was 57.60%, a 3.04% month - on - month increase but a 6.39% year - on - year decrease; the EPS operating rate was 54.75%, a 2.70% month - on - month decrease but a 13.75% year - on - year increase; the ABS operating rate was 71.20%, a 1.66% month - on - month decrease but a 3.46% year - on - year increase. During the seasonal peak season, the increase in the operating rate was lower than in previous years [11]. - Inventory: EB factory inventory was 19040 tons, a 2.36% month - on - month increase and a 48.54% year - on - year increase; EB inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16420 tons, a 14.92% month - on - month decrease but a 421.27% year - on - year increase. Pure benzene port inventory decreased significantly, but styrene port inventory remained at a high level [12]. - Next Month's Forecast: The reference fluctuation range for styrene (EB2601) is 6300 - 6600 yuan/ton; for pure benzene (BZ2603), it is 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton [12]. - Recommended Strategy: Hold short positions [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple graphs related to styrene, including spot prices, futures contract prices, basis, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads, but no specific data analysis or conclusions are provided [15][18][20]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: Styrene profits rebounded from a low level. The production process of styrene mainly consists of 85% ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, 12% PO/SM co - production, and 3% C8 extraction [40][43]. - Inventory: The report shows graphs of pure benzene and styrene port inventories, as well as styrene factory inventories, but no specific data analysis or conclusions are provided [33][36][37]. 3.4 Cost End - Production Plan: The total planned production capacity of pure benzene in 2025 is 228000 tons, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 311000 tons. There are differences in production capacity increases in each quarter [50]. - Price and Spread: The report presents graphs of pure benzene price spreads, import profits, and BZN spreads, but no specific data analysis or conclusions are provided [56][57][59]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of pure benzene showed a seasonal rebound. The profits of phenol and aniline continued to decline, with a moderately fluctuating operating rate. The profits of caprolactam recovered, and the factory inventory of caprolactam decreased significantly [63][71][84]. 3.5 Supply End - Production Increase: In Q4 2025, the supply of styrene will increase, potentially putting downward pressure on prices. The total planned production capacity of styrene in 2025 is 242000 tons, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 419800 tons [96][98][100]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of styrene continued to decline [106]. 3.6 Demand End - Profit: The profits of EPS and PS were at low levels in the same period. The operating rate of ABS decreased as profits declined [116][124]. - Downstream Products: The report also analyzed the production, sales, and inventory of household appliances such as refrigerators and washing machines, showing that the year - on - year production of washing machines was moderately high [135][143].
苯乙烯月报：下游3S利润同期低位，苯乙烯短期震荡偏空-20251205
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-05 13:42