南华期货棉花棉纱周报：棉价震荡波动，关注上压-20251205

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report - Cotton Prices Fluctuate, Pay Attention to Upper Pressure [1] - Date: December 5, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 Core Contradictions - As of December 4, 2025, the cumulative national new - season cotton notarized inspection volume was 4.6436 million tons, with the average daily notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton around 80,000 tons. There is still hedging pressure on the futures market. Spot basis quotes have slightly decreased, while fixed - price quotes remain firm [2]. - Downstream overall load is stable, spinners' profits are acceptable, and finished - product inventory pressure is not large. Yarn sales are better than grey fabric sales, and spinners have a rigid demand for replenishing cotton inventory. Follow - up orders need attention [2]. 2.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Near - term Trading Logic: New cotton is accelerating onto the market, but the downstream has resilience. Despite being in the traditional off - season, some sectors have good orders and spinners maintain certain profits. As long as the final cotton output does not increase unexpectedly, the downside space for cotton prices is limited. Pay attention to whether the hedging pressure around 13,800 can be broken [4]. - Long - term Trading Logic: In recent years, domestic downstream textile production capacity has expanded significantly. Xinjiang spinning mills maintain high - load operation, increasing the rigid consumption of cotton raw materials. Sino - US trade expectations are gradually improving. Although domestic cotton production has increased significantly, imports are still needed to fill the gap. The total 1% import tariff quota for cotton in 2026 remains at 894,000 tons, and with the additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale quota, the total new - season import quota is still relatively low. The probability of further increasing the cotton import quota is low, so the domestic cotton supply - demand may remain tight in the new season. Pay attention to the demand side under the influence of new - season policy changes [15][16]. 2.3 Strategy Recommendations for Industrial Customers - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range for cotton is predicted to be between 13,500 and 14,000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0542, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 0.0365 [18]. - Risk Management Strategies: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,900 - 14,000. They can also sell call options (CF605C14000) to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 200 - 250 [18]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,400 - 13,500. They can also sell put options (CF601P13400) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 250 - 300 [18]. 2.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures Data: Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 13,750, up 25 (0.18%); Zhengzhou cotton 05 closed at 13,720, up 35 (0.26%); Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13,855, up 65 (0.47%) [19]. - Spot Data: CC Index 3128B was at 15,022, up 126 (0.85%); CC Index 2227B was at 13,165, up 148 (1.14%); CC Index 2129B was at 15,290, up 148 (0.98%) [19]. - Spread Data: CF1 - 5 spread was 30, down 10; CF5 - 9 spread was - 135, down 30; CF9 - 1 spread was 105, up 40 [20]. - Import Price: FC Index M was at 12,853, down 82 (- 0.63%); FCY Index C32s was at 21,116, up 19 (0.09%) [20]. - Cotton Yarn Data: The futures price was 20,005, down 85 (- 0.42%); the现货 price was 20,770, up 30 (0.14%) [20]. Group 3: Weekly Information and Upcoming Events 3.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: - As of November 27, the national new - cotton picking progress was 99.6%, the same as last year and 0.1 percentage points higher than the four - year average; the national delivery rate was 98.5%, 1.0 percentage points higher than last year and 2.2 percentage points higher than the four - year average; the national processing rate was 72.5%, 3.3 percentage points higher than last year and 9.8 percentage points higher than the four - year average; the national sales rate was 33.2%, 18.9 percentage points higher than last year and 22.1 percentage points higher than the four - year average [20]. - In October, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles in China were 147.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 19.54% and a year - on - year increase of 9.21% [21]. - As of October 23, 2025, the cumulative net signed export volume of US cotton for the 2025/26 season was 1.137 million tons, accounting for 42.81% of the annual expected export volume, and the cumulative shipped volume was 398,000 tons, with a shipping rate of 34.98% [21]. - As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative new - season seed cotton listing volume in Pakistan, converted to lint cotton, was about 796,000 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons from the previous two weeks and a 1.1% decrease compared to the same period last year [21]. - Negative Information: - In October 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. Textile exports were 11.258 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 9.05% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.92%; clothing exports were 11.004 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 15.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.64% [22]. - As of November 15, the total national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 4.5711 million tons, an increase of 752,300 tons from the end of October. Commercial inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 709,100 tons from the end of October, and industrial inventory was 931,400 tons, an increase of 43,200 tons from the end of October [22]. - In October 2025, the export volume of cotton products was 608,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.36% and a month - on - month increase of 0.98%. The export value was 4.678 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 17.09% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.12%. The export unit price was 7.69 US dollars per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 15.96% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.13% [22]. 3.2 Next Week's Important Events - The cotton harvest in Xinjiang is basically completed. Pay attention to the processing and final output of Xinjiang cotton [23]. - Follow up on US cotton export data and the adjustment of the December USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Report [23]. Group 4: Disk Interpretation 4.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement: This week, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated around 13,700 - 13,800 yuan/ton. The downward movement was mainly driven by long - position exits rather than short - position increases. Market trading was cautious, and the hedging pressure around 13,800 was obvious [31]. - Month - spread Structure: The cotton 1 - 5 spread still shows a slight back structure, but after the 05 contract, it maintains a contango structure, indicating an expectation of tight supply - demand at the end of the year [34]. - Basis Structure: This week, the cotton basis slightly decreased. The fixed - price quotes for hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang (3130/30B/impurity within 2) and machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang (3130/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5) are around 14,800 - 14,950 (on a legal weight basis). The spot sales basis for the same - quality cotton is mostly in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1250, and the basis in the 1000 - 1100 range slightly increased this week [36]. Group 5: Valuation and Profit Analysis 5.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Supported by policies and technological innovation, Xinjiang spinning mills have a significant cost advantage over those in the inland. Xinjiang spinning has always maintained certain profits, while inland mills were basically slightly loss - making in the third quarter. Since September, due to the hedging pressure from ginning mills and the supply pressure of new cotton, domestic cotton prices have declined, while yarn spot prices have been relatively stable, significantly repairing domestic spinners' profits. This week, cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly, while yarn prices were relatively stable, and spinners' profits narrowed compared to last week [38]. 5.2 Import Profit Tracking - China is a large cotton - importing country. Affected by the Xinjiang cotton ban and tariff policies, domestic and foreign cotton prices move relatively independently. This year, China's cotton import profit has been considerable, but the import quota is currently low, and the domestic cotton import volume remains at a low level. In October 2025, China's cotton import volume was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. The cumulative cotton import volume in the 2025/26 season was 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.4%. This week, foreign cotton prices trended weakly, and China's cotton import profit slightly increased [40]. Group 6: Supply and Inventory Projection 6.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The new - season cotton harvest in Xinjiang is basically completed. With the progress of new - cotton procurement, the expected output of Xinjiang cotton has been slightly revised upwards again, indicating a bumper harvest. In terms of imports, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued an additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale quota, and together with the 894,000 - ton 1% tariff quota issued in 2026, the new - season cotton import volume is tentatively estimated at 1.1 million tons. Given the domestic bumper harvest and the unchanged Sino - US situation, the probability of further increasing the sliding - scale quota is currently low. On the downstream side, domestic demand may maintain a moderate recovery. Although it is currently the traditional off - season, some textile and clothing sectors have good orders. On the export side, although there are no "rush - to - export" orders, with the further relaxation of Sino - US trade, domestic cotton consumption expectations are still supported [44].