铝月报：供应偏紧，铝价震荡走强-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Driven by macro - positive factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the atmosphere in the non - ferrous metals sector remains warm. Fundamentally, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is gradually decreasing, the US spot aluminum premium remains high, the LME aluminum ingot inventory continues to decline and is at a relatively low level. Coupled with supply disruptions, relatively stable downstream operating rates, and rising copper prices, aluminum prices may strengthen further. The operating range of the main Shanghai Aluminum contract this month is expected to be between 21,400 - 23,200 yuan/ton, and the operating range of the LME 3M aluminum is expected to be between 2,780 - 3,200 US dollars/ton [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of November, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.22 million tons (with a built - in capacity of 45.78 million tons), and the industry's operating rate remained stable month - on - month. In November, the electrolytic aluminum output decreased by 2.8% month - on - month and increased by 1.5% year - on - year. It is expected that the operating capacity will increase slightly in December, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to continue to decline slightly [12] - Inventory & Spot: At the end of November, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory increased at the beginning of December. The bonded - area inventory was 61,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons month - on - month. The total inventory of aluminum rods was 144,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons month - on - month. The global LME aluminum inventory was 538,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons month - on - month, at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. At the end of November, the domestic East China aluminum ingot spot was at a discount of 35 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 26 US dollars/ton [12] - Imports and Exports: In October 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 248,000 tons, a 1.8% increase month - on - month and a 42.2% increase year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to October were 2.205 million tons, a 20.9% year - on - year increase. In October, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a 8.6% year - on - year decrease. In November, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots fluctuated and expanded [12] - Demand: According to SMM research, the operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises fluctuated and declined in November. The industry is gradually shifting from the peak season to the off - season, but consumption still shows resilience [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: In November, Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated upward, with a monthly increase of 1.1%, while LME Aluminum decreased by 0.8% in the same period. After entering December, Shanghai Aluminum strengthened further, breaking through the 22,200 yuan/ton mark on December 5th [19] - Term Spread: In November, the spread between the first - and third - month contracts of Shanghai Aluminum widened at a discount [26] - Spot Basis: In November, the discounts in East China and Central China expanded, while the discount in South China narrowed within the month. The East China spot strengthened relatively [31][32] - LME Spread: In November, the LME aluminum Cash/3M discount widened [35] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: In November, the primary aluminum smelting profit increased by 8.2% month - on - month compared to October and was at a historical high [40] - Inventory: At the end of November, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons month - on - month; the bonded - area inventory was 61,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons month - on - month; the total inventory of aluminum rods was 144,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons month - on - month; the LME global aluminum inventory was 538,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons month - on - month [12][46][51] 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite Price: In November, the prices of domestic and overseas bauxite remained stable [68] - Alumina Price: In November, the domestic alumina price decreased by 56 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the import price decreased by 4 US dollars/ton [71] - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: In November, the anode price increased by 222 yuan/ton compared to October, and the thermal coal price increased by 70 yuan/ton month - on - month [75] 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In November, the monthly output of metallurgical - grade alumina was 7.495 million tons, a 4.4% month - on - month decrease and a 1.4% year - on - year increase [81] - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of November, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.22 million tons (with a built - in capacity of 45.78 million tons), and the industry's operating rate remained stable month - on - month. In November, the electrolytic aluminum output decreased by 2.8% month - on - month and increased by 1.5% year - on - year. It is expected that the operating capacity will increase slightly in December. In October, the overseas electrolytic aluminum output was 2.59 million tons, a 3.6% increase month - on - month [84] - Molten Aluminum Ratio: In November, the aluminum rod processing fee increased month - on - month and decreased in December. The domestic molten aluminum ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points month - on - month in November, and the ingot casting volume decreased by about 13.4% year - on - year and increased slightly to about 822,000 tons month - on - month. The molten aluminum ratio is expected to continue to decline slightly in December [87] - Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum output of each province decreased in November compared to October [92] 3.6 Demand Side - Aluminum Product Output: In October, China's aluminum product output was 5.694 million tons, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative output from January to October was 55.243 million tons, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. As of December 1st, the daily aluminum ingot delivery volume was 153,000 tons, an increase month - on - month [97] - Downstream Operating Rate: In October, the operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum plate - strip - foil decreased month - on - month; the operating rate of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots increased month - on - month, while the operating rate of aluminum rods decreased month - on - month; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [104][107][110] - Terminal Demand: According to the production scheduling reports of the three major white - goods released by Industry Online, in December 2025, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 14.11 million units, a 22.3% decrease compared to the actual output in the same period last year, with a narrowing decline; the production schedule of refrigerators was 8.13 million units, an 8.2% decrease compared to the actual output in the same period last year, with a narrowing decline; the production schedule of washing machines was 7.94 million units, a 1.9% decrease compared to the actual output in the same period last year, with an expanding decline. In November, the real - estate data continued to be weak, and the automobile production and sales were fair. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules in December is expected to decrease month - on - month [114] 3.7 Imports and Exports - Primary Aluminum Imports: In October 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 248,000 tons, a 1.8% increase month - on - month and a 42.2% increase year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to October were 2.205 million tons, a 20.9% year - on - year increase. In November, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots narrowed within the month [119] - Aluminum Product Exports: In October 2025, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a 8.6% year - on - year decrease [127] - Recycled Aluminum Imports: In October 2025, the recycled aluminum imports were 158,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons month - on - month; the cumulative imports from January to October were 1.659 million tons, an 11.7% year - on - year increase [127] - Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports: In October 2025, China's bauxite imports were 13.766 million tons, with an import ratio of 71.8%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to October were 170.959 million tons, a 30.1% year - on - year increase. In October 2025, China exported 176,000 tons of alumina, a 3.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative alumina exports from January to October were 2.175 million tons, a 54.7% year - on - year increase [130]