氧化铝月报：累库趋势未见放缓，期价加速下行-20251205

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures price accelerated its decline in December due to high production, expired warehouse receipt delivery difficulties, high inventory, and falling ore prices. The overseas ore supply is the decisive factor for the future price trend [11]. - The alumina spot price is under pressure due to high production and continuous inventory accumulation. The oversupply situation is difficult to reverse without large - scale production cuts [11]. - After the rainy season, the bauxite shipping will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short - term, but the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production cut expectation is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2450 - 2700 yuan/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - As of December 5, the alumina index fell 7.36% from October 31 to 2607 yuan/ton. The basis and the spread between the first - month and the third - month contracts continued to widen in November. The Shandong spot price had a premium of 185 yuan/ton over the main contract price, and the spread between the first - month and the third - month contracts was 145 yuan/ton [11]. - The alumina spot prices in different regions decreased. The southern region had a larger decline. As of December 5, the prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2890, 2905, 2845, 2755, 2830, and 3090 yuan/ton respectively, with significant drops compared to early November [11]. - As of December 5, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 272,000 tons to 5.004 million tons. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse increased by 16,200 tons to 253,300 tons [11]. 3.2 Period - Spot End - The alumina spot price is under pressure due to high production and inventory. The oversupply situation is difficult to reverse without large - scale production cuts. The southern region's spot price had a larger decline compared to the north [18]. - As of December 5, the alumina index fell 7.36% from October 31. The basis and the spread between the first - month and the third - month contracts continued to widen. The Shandong spot price had a premium of 185 yuan/ton over the main contract price, and the spread between the first - month and the third - month contracts was 145 yuan/ton [21]. 3.3 Raw Material End - Domestic bauxite production decreased due to environmental protection and rainy seasons, but the price remained firm. The alumina plants' willingness to lower prices increased due to shrinking profits. The imported bauxite shipping volume recovered, and the port inventory was high. After the rainy season, the ore price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the cost support of Guinea's bauxite at 60 - 65 US dollars/ton [12]. - In November 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.698 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%. The cumulative production in the first eleven months was 55.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54% [27]. - In October 2025, China's bauxite imports were 13.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.32%. The cumulative imports in the first ten months were 171.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.11% [29]. - In October 2025, China imported 900,000 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 18.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.25%. The cumulative imports in the first ten months were 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.37% [32]. - As of December 31, 2025, the global bauxite shipping volume remained stable at a high level. China's bauxite port inventory was 28.07 million tons [35]. - In November, China's bauxite inventory increased by 780,000 tons to 53.29 million tons. The inventory in Shanxi and Henan decreased, and the increase mainly came from Shandong [38]. 3.4 Supply End - In October 2025, China's alumina production was 7.967 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.88% and a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. The cumulative production in the first ten months was 74.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.03% [41]. - There will be more new alumina production capacity in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, which is expected to intensify the oversupply situation [44]. - The alumina spot price is falling, and the alumina plants' profits are under pressure. However, due to the simultaneous decline in the prices of liquid caustic soda and bauxite, the plants have not suffered deep losses. As of December 5, the production profit in Guangxi was 140 yuan/ton, and the profits in Shandong using Australian and Guinea ore were - 10 and 70 yuan/ton respectively. The use of Guinea ore in Shanxi and Henan will result in a loss of 40 yuan/ton [46]. 3.5 Import - Export - In October 2025, the net alumina import was 13,600 tons. The opening of the previous import window led to the first monthly change from net export to net import this year. The cumulative net export in the first ten months was 1.4375 million tons [49]. - As of December 5, the FOB price of Australian alumina decreased by 4 US dollars/ton to 312 US dollars/ton compared to the end of October. The import profit and loss was - 3 yuan/ton, and the current import profit and loss was basically balanced [52]. 3.6 Demand End - In October 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% and a month - on - month increase of 2.74%. The cumulative production in the first ten months was 36.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [56]. - In October 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. The operating rate was maintained at 97.47% [59]. 3.7 Inventory - As of December 5, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 272,000 tons to 5.004 million tons. The electrolytic aluminum plant inventory, alumina plant inventory, in - transit inventory, and port inventory changed by + 231,000 tons, - 60,000 tons, + 78,000 tons, and + 23,000 tons respectively [64]. - As of December 5, 2025, the alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse increased by 16,200 tons to 253,300 tons [66].