生猪月报：从高空近月到低多远月-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The theoretical and planned pig slaughter volume remains large. With high slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still higher than the same period last year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the pens for secondary fattening by individual farmers are slowly releasing. The supply - side pressure remains high. Near - term contracts are still under pressure from spot prices, but when prices are too low, there may be fluctuations due to spot prices and positions. The expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term is strong, and the downside space may be limited. It is recommended to maintain the reverse spread idea, but gradually shift the focus from shorting near - term contracts at high levels to going long on far - term contracts at low levels [10][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Since November, domestic pig prices have been oscillating downward. The supply of live pigs in the market is abundant, while the demand is affected by the lack of obvious cooling. Curing has only been carried out sporadically, and individual farmers mainly focus on selling pigs, lacking support from secondary fattening. The price is under overall pressure. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly decreased, and the average trading weight has slowly increased. In November, the average price in Henan dropped by 1.12 yuan to 11.38 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.8 yuan to 11.3 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 1.04 yuan to 11.92 yuan/kg. This month, due to the increased supply from large enterprises and individual farmers, the supply may increase significantly. The demand may remain stable in the early stage and may have difficulty absorbing the supply. However, with the peak of curing later, there may be a sharp increase when the spot price is too low, but the overall sufficient supply may limit the increase. Therefore, it is expected that pig prices will be weak first and then strong this month, but the overall center of gravity will still decline [11][22]. - Supply Side: In October, the official inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease, still 2.3% more than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a bearish supply situation this year and in the first half of next year. However, there is a strong expectation of mandatory capacity reduction from the policy side, which may improve the supply situation next year. The implementation of policy - driven capacity reduction in the next few months needs to be closely monitored. From the data of piglets, the basic supply from now to May next year shows an increasing trend month by month. Coupled with the backward accumulation of inventory caused by frozen pork storage and secondary fattening this round, as well as the pre - arranged supply to cope with the off - season after the Spring Festival, it is expected that the pig market before the Spring Festival this year will still face a bearish configuration of high slaughter volume and large - weight pigs. In the short term, after the National Day, the slaughter volume has remained high, the frozen pork inventory has continued to rise, and the average trading weight of pigs is larger than the same period last year and has increased month - on - month. The short - term market still has an oversupply situation [11]. - Demand Side: After the National Day, the demand has increased month - on - month. On the one hand, low prices have stimulated consumption, and frozen pork and secondary fattening have entered the market. On the other hand, basic consumption has increased after the temperature dropped. However, the temperature drop from October to November was limited, and there is still some time until the Spring Festival. A significant increase in consumption needs to wait until December [11]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short contracts 01 and 03 after a rebound, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 0.5 - 1 month, driven by supply, weight, and consumer demand. For arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct reverse spreads for contracts 3 - 7 and 3 - 9, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 2 months, driven by policies, weight, basic supply, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price Trend: The domestic pig price has been oscillating downward since November. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the price will be weak first and then strong this month, but the overall center of gravity will decline [22]. - Basis and Spread Trend: The spot market is generally weak, and the near - term futures follow the spot. The far - term futures trade on the expectation of capacity reduction, and the monthly spread tends to be in a reverse spread [25]. 3.3 Supply Side - Breeding Sows and Changes: In October, the official inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease, still 2.3% more than the normal level. The production capacity reduction in the early stage was slow, but there are signs of acceleration recently [33]. - Inventory and Slaughter: From the data of piglets, the basic supply from now to April next year shows an increasing trend month by month. Before the Spring Festival this year, the pig market will face a bearish configuration of high slaughter volume and large - weight pigs. In the short term, the market has an oversupply situation [42][49]. 3.4 Demand Side - After the National Day, the demand has increased month - on - month. However, due to limited temperature drop from October to November and some time until the Spring Festival, a significant increase in consumption needs to wait until December [58]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost has been continuously declining. However, the pig price is the weakest in the same period in recent years. Although the cost is low, there has been an overall loss this year [69]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The frozen pork inventory is in a state of slow recovery and active inventory accumulation [74].