铂族金属月报：租赁利率回落，关注价格高位波动风险-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum group metal prices are strong following the rise in gold and silver prices, but there is a risk of a short - term pullback. The prices of platinum and palladium have increased this month, but the driving force of the spot market has weakened, and the tight overseas spot pattern has eased. With the ETF holdings showing mediocre performance, attention should be paid to the price decline risk when the trading enthusiasm in the precious metal sector fades. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see approach for platinum and palladium currently [3][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - Price Movements: NYMEX platinum price rose 5.16% to $1,660.4 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's main contract price rose 1.12% to $1,483.5 per ounce this month. The platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have also seen price increases since their listing on November 27 [10][21][24] - Implied Lease Rates: The one - month implied lease rates of platinum and palladium have declined, indicating a relief in the tight overseas spot situation. The platinum one - month implied lease rate dropped from 24.1% on November 4 to 15.03% on December 4, and that of palladium fell from 11.71% to 6.89% [10] - ETF Holdings: Overseas major platinum ETF total holdings decreased from 76.04 tons to 75.88 tons this month, while palladium ETF total holdings remained around 14.8 tons [10] - Interest Rate Expectations: The market expects an 84.8% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in the December meeting, and a 15.2% probability of keeping the rate unchanged. The easing expectation has been almost fully priced, and there is a risk of a decline in precious metal prices [10] 3.2 Market Review - Platinum and Palladium Prices: NYMEX platinum price increased by 5.16% to $1,660.4 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's main contract price rose by 1.12% to $1,483.5 per ounce. The domestic platinum and palladium futures prices also had small increases [21][24] - Domestic Platinum Premium: Affected by the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy, the domestic platinum premium has significantly rebounded. As of December 4, the Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price was 434.2 yuan/gram [27] - Lease Rates: As of December 4, the platinum and palladium one - month implied lease rates were at the highest levels in the same period of the past five years but showed obvious weakening signs in the short term [31] - CFTC Positions: The CFTC positions of platinum and palladium have not been updated to the latest reporting period [36][39] 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - ETF Holdings: As of December 4, the total holdings of platinum ETFs were 75.87 tons, and those of palladium ETFs were 14.8 tons [50][53] - Platinum Inventory: The US platinum exchange inventory remained at a high level. As of December 4, the CME platinum inventory was 19.14 tons [57] - Palladium Inventory: The CME palladium inventory as of December 4 was 5,362 kilograms, with a decrease of 25.93 kilograms compared to November 25 [62][63] 3.4 Supply and Demand - Platinum Supply: The total platinum output of the top 15 global mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024, indicating a contraction in mine - end supply [67][68] - Palladium Supply: The total palladium output of the top 15 global mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024 [70][71] - Chinese Imports: China's platinum imports in October were 10.23 tons, showing a decline from September, and palladium imports in October were 3.1 tons, a significant drop from September [74][77] - Automobile Production: The report presents data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US, but no clear conclusion is drawn from these data [79][82][85] - Global Supply - Demand Balance: The global platinum market is expected to have a supply - demand deficit of 14.29 tons in 2025, and the palladium market is expected to have a supply - demand surplus of 3.5 tons [88][89] 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spreads: The report presents the 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads of NYMEX platinum [93][97] - NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spreads: The report shows the 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads of NYMEX palladium [106][102] - London - NYMEX Spreads: The report provides the spreads between London spot platinum and palladium prices and NYMEX prices [108]