钢材月报：弱现实与暖预期，钢价企稳迹象初显-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November 2025, the steel industry faced weak supply - demand fundamentals. Steel mills' profitability was under pressure, with average profit margins narrowing. Supply showed signs of active contraction due to low steel prices and rising cost pressures. Demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils declined year - on - year, and hot - rolled coil inventory remained at a high level. However, with the continuous implementation of domestic policies and the improvement of the external environment, there is a possibility of a stable recovery in terminal demand, and the industry may enter a window of marginal improvement. Key factors to watch include the pace of infrastructure fund investment, the strength of manufacturing recovery, overseas interest - rate cut processes, and signals from the domestic Politburo meeting [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Valuation: In November 2025, steel mills' profitability continued to be under pressure, with average profit margins further decreasing. The blast furnace profit was about 31 yuan/ton, and the electric furnace profit was about 79 yuan/ton, both in a weak range [11]. - Supply: Rebar production in November 2025 was 8.2258 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4999 million tons; hot - rolled coil production was 12.6684 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7442 million tons. The daily average pig iron output was about 2.3551 million tons, a slight decline from the previous month. Affected by the significant compression of profits, the production enthusiasm of steel mills decreased, and the profitability rate dropped to 36.36%, at a low level within the year [11]. - Demand: In November 2025, the apparent consumption of rebar was 8.9362 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6604 million tons; the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 12.7253 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1718 million tons. The demand for plates was significantly differentiated, with the demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates relatively strong, especially the demand for medium - thick plates in November approaching the high point of the same period in the past five years. The demand for hot - rolled coils was neutral, without obvious increments. Rebar demand was still weak due to the continuous weakness of real - estate investment [11]. - Inventory: As of the end of November 2025, rebar inventory was 5.3148 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8384 million tons; hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.009 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9518 million tons. The total inventory of the five major steel products remained at a neutral level, but there was significant differentiation among varieties. Hot - rolled coil inventory was in a relatively high range, and it was difficult to reduce social inventory. With the seasonal weakening of demand, there was still a certain inventory accumulation pressure before the end of the year [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The document presents a series of charts showing the prices, trading volumes, basis, and price differences of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contract months, as well as the price differences between different steel products and regions, including rebar in North, East, and South China, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and other steel products [25][27][30]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: The document shows the disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, and the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces through charts [81][83][84]. - Inventory: It presents the inventory data of rebar and hot - rolled coils, including total inventory, factory inventory, and social inventory, as well as the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan and 55 billet - rolling enterprises [95][98][106]. 3.4 Cost End - The document shows the ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke futures, daily average pig iron and crude steel output, the prices of billets, scrap steel, and the consumption of scrap steel through charts [114][117][120]. 3.5 Supply End - Rebar: The production, production capacity utilization rate, and cumulative year - on - year production of rebar are presented. In November 2025, rebar production decreased year - on - year, and the production capacity utilization rate also showed certain changes [136][138]. - Hot - rolled Coils: The actual production, production capacity utilization rate, and cumulative year - on - year production of hot - rolled coils are presented. The production of hot - rolled coils also decreased year - on - year [141][143]. 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - Domestic Demand: The apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils are presented. The demand for both decreased year - on - year. In addition, the production and export data of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners are also shown [148][151][153]. - Import - Export: The monthly import and export data of steel, rebar, and plates are presented. South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel products will put pressure on China's steel exports [11][163][165].