棉花月报：丰产利空消化叠加淡季不淡，棉价反弹-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the fundamental perspective, although the previous peak season was lackluster, the demand after the peak season was not too bad. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in the futures price had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, short - term funds entered the market to push up cotton prices. However, there was no strong driving force in the short term, and coupled with the pressure of hedging orders, the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend was not high [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In November, the price of US cotton futures declined slightly. As of November 28, the closing price of the March contract of US cotton futures was 64.73 cents per pound, a decrease of 2.05 cents per pound or 3.07% from the previous month. The spread between the March and May contracts of US cotton fluctuated, reaching - 1.24 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.08 cents per pound from the previous month. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated within a narrow range. As of November 28, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,725 yuan per ton, an increase of 130 yuan per ton or 0.96% from the previous month. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,896 yuan per ton, an increase of 36 yuan per ton from the previous month. The basis was 1,189 yuan per ton, a decrease of 65 yuan per ton from the previous month. The spread between the January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated, reaching 40 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan per ton from the previous month [9]. - Industry Information: As of the week ending November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years (72.1%). The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. According to the latest monthly supply - demand report of the USDA, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast. Among them, the production in the US was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; the production in Brazil was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; the production in India remained at the forecast of 5.23 million tons; and the production in China was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons [9]. - Viewpoints and Strategies: Fundamentally, the previous peak season was lackluster, but the demand after the peak season was not too bad. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in the futures price had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, short - term funds entered the market to push up cotton prices. However, there was no strong driving force in the short term, and coupled with the pressure of hedging orders, the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend was not high [9]. - Fundamental Assessment: On November 28, 2025, the basis was 1,189 yuan per ton, the spread between the January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton was 40 yuan per ton, the spinning immediate profit was - 1,034 yuan per ton, the spread between Zhejiang and Xinjiang was 367 yuan per ton, and the cost (FC index M 1%) was 12,935 yuan per ton, and (FC index M sliding - scale duty) was 13,932 yuan per ton. The multi - empty scores were all +0, and the basis weakened while other indicators changed little. The conclusion was that the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend was not high [10]. - Trading Strategy Suggestion: The recommended strategy was to wait and see [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presented multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract, the import profit (1% tariff and sliding - scale duty internal and external spreads), the Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads (1 - 5 and 5 - 9), the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread, the spinning mill immediate profit, the US cotton contract spreads (12 - 3 and 3 - 5), and the external spreads (US - Brazil spread and FCindexM1% - CotlookA index 1% tariff) [25][27][29] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - Domestic Cotton Production: The report showed the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton through charts [38]. - Cotton Import Volume: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton were presented [40]. - US Export Contract Quantity to China: The cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of the US to China were shown [43]. - Cotton Yarn Import Volume: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn were presented [45]. - Downstream Operating Rate: The operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills were shown [48]. - National Sales Progress: The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City were presented [50]. - Cotton Inventory: The weekly commercial inventory and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory of Chinese cotton were shown [53]. - Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory: The cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills were presented [55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - US Planting Situation: The proportion of US cotton planting areas without drought and the excellent - good rate were shown, as well as the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes [59][60]. - US Production and Planting Area: The production forecast and planting area of US cotton were presented [63]. - US Export Contract Progress: The cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of US cotton in the current year were shown [65]. - US Export Shipment Volume: The annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton were presented [67]. - US Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - Consumption Ratio: The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio of US cotton were shown [68]. - Brazilian Production and Planting Area: The planting area and production of Brazilian cotton were presented [70]. - Brazilian Export Volume: The export volume of Brazilian cotton was shown [73]. - Brazilian Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - Consumption Ratio: The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton were shown [75]. - Indian Production and Planting Area: The planting area and production of Indian cotton were presented [78]. - Indian Consumption and Import - Export: The consumption, import, and export volumes of Indian cotton were shown [81]. - Indian Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - Consumption Ratio: The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio of Indian cotton were shown [83].