尿素月报：需求回升，企业库存延续去化-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In November 2025, the urea market continued to oscillate upwards. The spot price increased, and the basis was repaired. The seasonal rise in market reserve demand and compound fertilizer demand led to a slight improvement in overall demand. The high - level enterprise inventory continued to decline, and the overall valuation of urea remained relatively low. The improvement in supply and demand drove the price up, and there was still support at the bottom [12]. - The supply in November was at a high level, with domestic urea production reaching 6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 129,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 427,000 tons. As winter gas - fired plants shut down, the overall enterprise operation was expected to decline seasonally. The demand showed marginal improvement, with domestic compound fertilizer production in November reaching 4.38 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 tons and at a high level year - on - year. Future demand should focus on off - season storage and export demand changes [12]. - Although the loss of fixed - bed production narrowed in November as the spot price stabilized and rebounded, the absolute profit level was still at a low level. The basis and the inter - month spread increased as the high - level enterprise inventory declined. The export profit was high, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued. The enterprise inventory decreased by 190,000 tons in November, driving the basis and the inter - month structure to strengthen. The latest enterprise inventory was 1.29 million tons, and the port inventory fluctuated at a low level, currently at 105,000 tons [12]. - With the increase in reserve fertilizer and compound fertilizer operation, the overall market demand improved. Against the backdrop of low valuation, the price oscillated upwards. The futures market also continued to rise, and the basis and the inter - month spread both strengthened. In reality, the increase in reserve demand and compound fertilizer operation drove a short - term improvement in demand, and enterprise pre - sales increased significantly. Although exports were gradually gathering at ports, the progress was relatively slow, and the port inventory increased slightly. In terms of supply, the operation of gas - made plants continued to decline seasonally, while that of coal - made plants changed little. In the future, the overall supply was expected to decline seasonally. The decrease in supply and the increase in demand led to a continuous decline in enterprise inventory, and the overall supply - demand situation of urea improved. There was support from export policies and costs at the bottom, and the downward space was limited. It was expected to build a bottom through oscillation under low valuation. In the future, demand should mainly focus on export and off - season storage demand, and the supply side should focus on winter gas - fired plant shutdowns and cost support. In terms of strategy, it was recommended to consider long - position allocation at low prices [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In November, the market mainly oscillated upwards. The spot price increased, and the basis was repaired. The seasonal rise in reserve demand and compound fertilizer demand led to a slight improvement in overall demand, and the high - level enterprise inventory continued to decline [12]. - Fundamentals - Supply: In November, domestic urea production was 6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 129,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 427,000 tons. As winter gas - fired plants shut down, the overall enterprise operation was expected to decline seasonally [12]. - Demand: Domestic compound fertilizer production in November was 4.38 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 tons and at a high level year - on - year. Future demand should focus on off - season storage and export demand changes [12]. - Profit: Although the loss of fixed - bed production narrowed in November as the spot price stabilized and rebounded, the absolute profit level was still at a low level [12]. - Valuation: The export profit was high, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued. The enterprise inventory decreased by 190,000 tons in November, driving the basis and the inter - month structure to strengthen. The latest enterprise inventory was 1.29 million tons, and the port inventory fluctuated at a low level, currently at 105,000 tons [12]. - Market Logic: The increase in reserve fertilizer and compound fertilizer operation led to an improvement in overall market demand. Against the backdrop of low valuation, the price oscillated upwards. The futures market also continued to rise, and the basis and the inter - month spread both strengthened [12]. - Strategy: Consider long - position allocation opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - Price Data: The report provides price data for futures contracts (such as 09, 01, 05 contracts), domestic spot markets in different regions (Shandong, Henan, Hebei, etc.), downstream products (compound fertilizer, melamine), and international prices. It also shows changes in basis, inter - month spreads, and export profits [13]. - Graphical Analysis: Includes graphs of 01 basis seasonality, Shandong urea spot market price, urea 1 - 5 spread, and urea term structure, etc., to help analyze the periodic and spot market conditions [23][26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Production Profit: The loss of fixed - bed production has narrowed, and graphs of fixed - bed profit, water - coal slurry profit, and gas - head production profit are provided [32]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory is at a high level and is in the process of de - stocking. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Graphs of enterprise inventory, port inventory, and inventory change deduction are provided [38][43][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Urea Operation: The operation of gas - made plants will start to decline seasonally. Graphs of urea operation, gas - head operation, and device maintenance loss are provided [48][49]. - Device Maintenance: Lists information on urea maintenance devices (including enterprise names, production capacities, raw materials, models, shutdown dates, start - up dates, production loss, and reasons for shutdown) and planned maintenance devices [50][51]. - Enterprise Pre - sales and Production Deduction: Graphs of main - producing area enterprise pre - sales orders and monthly production deduction are provided [52]. 3.5 Demand Side - Consumption Deduction: Graphs of monthly consumption and downstream demand proportion are provided [56]. - Compound Fertilizer: The operation of compound fertilizer shows a seasonal upward trend. Graphs of compound fertilizer operation rate, production profit, and nitrogen source price ratio are provided [58][59][62]. - Melamine: Graphs of melamine operation, profit, and export volume are provided [64][65][67]. - Terminal Demand: Graphs of plywood export volume, housing start - up and completion, and 5 - day average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities are provided [73][77]. - Export: The export profit is at a high level. Graphs of urea export volume, export profit, and export volume of other nitrogen - containing fertilizers are provided [83][84][85]. 3.6 Option - Related - Urea Option: Graphs of urea option position, trading volume, position PCR, trading PCR, and option volatility are provided [92][94][102]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - Urea Industry Chain: Diagrams of the urea industry chain, research framework analysis mind map, and industry chain characteristics are provided [105][107][109]. - Fertilizer Demand Seasonality: Analyzes the fertilizer demand seasonality of different regions and countries, and summarizes the overall characteristics of global and domestic fertilizer demand seasonality [112].