机械行业2026年度投资策略：成长引领，周期价值共振

Core Insights - The mechanical industry has shown an overall upward trend in 2025, with the CITIC Mechanical Industry Index recording a 30.9% increase, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 15.3 percentage points [11] - The performance of listed companies in the mechanical sector has been stable, with total revenue of 1.8801 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.73%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 127.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.99% [23] - The report highlights significant growth opportunities in the robotics sector, particularly with the upcoming mass production of humanoid robots and the increasing demand for industrial robots driven by aging populations and domestic substitution trends [31][42] Industry Overview - The manufacturing PMI in China has been fluctuating around the threshold, indicating overall weakness, with a PMI of 49.2% in November [20] - Fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 2.7% from January to October, reflecting a decline from earlier in the year [22] - The mechanical industry has experienced differentiated performance across various segments, with service robots and shipbuilding showing strong revenue and profit growth [23] Growth Opportunities - The robotics sector is expected to see continued demand growth, with the installation of industrial robots in China projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.52% from 2015 to 2024, reaching 295,000 units [36] - The PCB equipment market is benefiting from the recovery in consumer electronics and AI development, with global PCB industry output expected to grow by 6.8% in 2025 [54] - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a rebound in domestic demand, with excavator sales from January to October 2025 reaching 192,135 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.0% [66] Investment Recommendations - For the robotics sector, companies such as Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Zhenyu Technology are recommended for investment [3] - In the PCB equipment segment, companies like Dingtai High-Tech and Dazhu CNC are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3] - The engineering machinery sector suggests focusing on companies like SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG Machinery for investment [3] - In the general equipment category, attention is drawn to companies in the tool and machine tool segments, such as Huari Precision and Neway CNC [3]