橡胶月报：期待需求的利多-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market logic for long positions is mainly the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year, and the expected positive impact of Chinese policies. The low inventory at the exchange also supports long positions. The main reasons for short positions are the current dull demand, the expected decline in demand due to tariff - adding policies, and the increase in rubber exports from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire. [14] - The EU's Zero - Deforestation Act (EUDR) postponement will lead to a chain reaction such as inventory reduction in the stocking process of rubber and tire factories, which is a short - term negative for demand. [11] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase the supply of butadiene, and the processing profit of butadiene is expected to decline. The raw material supply is negative for the price of butadiene rubber. [18] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In mid - November, with the expiration of rubber warehouse receipts, an expected 10 - 110,000 tons will be out of storage, significantly reducing the rubber inventory and warehouse receipts at the exchange. Low inventory is likely to attract long - position attention. [10] - On November 28th, news reported that the EUDR was officially postponed, which is judged as a negative for demand. [10] - Thailand's rubber exports increased significantly year - on - year in October, exceeding market expectations, which is judged as a negative for supply. [10] - On December 5th, 2025, the market expected interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, which is positive for demand expectations. [10] - There will be continuous heavy rainfall in the main production areas of Thailand in mid - December. [10] - There are opportunities for short - term long - position trading in bands. [10] - December is still a season with relatively high demand such as winter storage, not the season when supply - demand margins deteriorate. [10] - The trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 is recommended, with a profit - loss ratio of 1.5:1, an irregular recommended cycle. If the future demand expectation improves, the price difference will widen, and repeated band operations are recommended. [19] 3.2 Cost End - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. [52] - The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan. [52] - The cost of Yunnan full - latex in China is generally considered to be between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. [52] - Rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when the price is low, the cost decreases. [52] 3.3 Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the decline occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and was below the farmers' cost for a long time. [26] - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable. [30] - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 of 2020. [33] 3.4 Profit and Price Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil,螺纹, iron ore, Shanghai Composite Index, and ChiNext Index are generally normal, with no special or notable values. [41][44][48] 3.5 Demand End - The full - steel tire factory operating rate is 63.5% (0.17%), and the demand for full - steel tires is normal. The peak of semi - steel tire exports to Europe has passed, and the expectation has weakened. [14] - The demand for medium - sized trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the future is expected to gradually recover, which affects the supporting tires. [61] - The export of truck tires is booming, but the future is expected to decline slightly. [64] 3.6 Supply End - The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, with no special or notable values. [69][73][76][79][83][86][89][93][97] - In September 2025, rubber production was 1,141,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.30% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%. The cumulative production was 8,170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.33%. [99] - In September 2025, rubber exports were 864,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.61% and a month - on - month increase of 3.18%. The cumulative exports were 7,151,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.62%. [100] - In September 2025, rubber consumption was 921,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.08% and a month - on - month increase of 0.16%. The cumulative consumption was 8,186,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%. [100] 3.7 Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber (Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber) - The total production capacity of butadiene in 2025 increased by 16% compared to 2024, with a total increase of 1.13 million tons. [18] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase supply, and the processing profit of butadiene is expected to decline. The high import expectation of butadiene also exacerbates the weakness of its price. [18] - The operating conditions of various butadiene production plants are detailed, including start - up, shutdown, and production recovery times. [16] - The weekly average operating load of butadiene - related enterprises is 71.05%. [17]