锌月报：锌矿延续偏紧，宏观氛围积极-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Zinc ore's visible inventory has increased, but the zinc concentrate TC has continued to decline, pressuring zinc smelting profits and leading some high - cost zinc smelters to cut production. The downstream operating rate has declined marginally. Although the domestic zinc ingot social inventory has slightly decreased, the total domestic zinc ingot inventory has slightly increased after considering in - transit inventory and factory inventory. Recently, the LME zinc monthly spread has risen again, and the net long position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc has increased, driving zinc prices to be strong in the short term. However, in the medium term, the weak status quo of the zinc industry does not resonate with the strong macro - sentiment expectations, and the upward space of zinc prices is expected to be limited [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - Industry Data: Zinc concentrate domestic TC is 2050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index is 61 US dollars/dry ton. Zinc concentrate port inventory is 279,000 physical tons, and factory inventory is 644,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 56.54%, with raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and finished product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 51.30%, with raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 57.37%, with raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11] - Price Review: From November 3rd to December 4th, SHFE zinc weighted closed up 1.96% to 22,885 yuan/ton, and the total SHFE zinc positions decreased by 19,700 lots to 202,000 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22,990 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 70 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 50 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 40 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong spread of 110 yuan/ton [12] - Domestic Structure: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 140,300 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 62,000 tons, the domestic Shanghai basis is 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 45 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 52,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 5,100 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is 186.85 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 43.5 US dollars/ton. Cross - market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio is 1.063, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss is - 4,393.18 yuan/ton [12] 3.2 Macro Analysis - The report provides multiple macro - related charts, including the US monthly fiscal revenue and expenditure and deficit MA12, the ratio of the US national debt to GDP, the Fed's balance sheet asset and liability structure, dollar liquidity, China and US manufacturing PMIs, and US manufacturing new orders and unfinished orders. However, there is no specific text analysis [15][17][20][21] 3.3 Supply Analysis - Zinc Ore Supply: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 330,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 12.3% and a month - on - month change of 5.2%. From January to October, the total zinc ore output was 3.0706 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 2.0%. In October 2025, the net zinc ore imports were 340,900 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 3.3% and a month - on - month change of - 32.5%. From January to October, the cumulative net zinc ore imports were 4.3406 million dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.1%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 484,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.3% and a month - on - month change of - 10.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5.0239 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.2% [26][28] - Zinc Concentrate TC: The domestic zinc concentrate TC is 2050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index is 61 US dollars/dry ton [29][30] - Zinc Ingot Supply: In October 2025, the zinc ingot output was 617,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 21.4% and a month - on - month change of 2.8%. From January to October, the total zinc ingot output was 5.6863 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. In October 2025, the net zinc ingot imports were 13,100 tons, a year - on - year change of - 79.3% and a month - on - month change of - 43.7%. From January to October, the cumulative net zinc ingot imports were 280,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 30.2%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 630,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5.9671 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [34][36] 3.4 Demand Analysis - Initial - stage Operating Rate and Inventory: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 56.54%, with raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and finished product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 51.30%, with raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 57.37%, with raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [40] - Apparent Demand: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 610,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.6% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to October, the domestic zinc ingot cumulative apparent demand was 5.804 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [42] 3.5 Supply - demand and Inventory - Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 20,000 tons. From January to October, the domestic zinc ingot cumulative supply - demand difference was a surplus of 163,100 tons [53] - Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance: In September 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 42,600 tons. From January to September, the overseas refined zinc cumulative supply - demand difference was a surplus of 139,900 tons [56] 3.6 Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased to 140,300 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 62,000 tons, the domestic Shanghai basis is 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 45 yuan/ton [61] - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 52,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 5,100 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is 186.85 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 43.5 US dollars/ton [64] - Cross - market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio is 1.063, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss is - 4,393.18 yuan/ton [65] - Position Analysis: The net long position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc has increased again. The net long position of LME zinc investment funds has decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has decreased. From a position perspective, it is bullish in the short term [68]