聚烯烃月报：供应端矛盾突出，LL1-5反套行情持续-20251205

Report Title - Supply - side contradictions are prominent, and the LL1 - 5 reverse spread market continues: Polyolefin Monthly Report [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the bottom of crude oil prices may have emerged. Polyolefin overall profit declines, and the inventory at the upper - middle reaches starts to decrease. The main fundamental contradiction of polyolefins lies in low valuation, but the registered warrants are at the same level as in previous years. The recommended strategy is to go long on the LL - PP spread at low prices. [16][17][18] - Next - month forecast: The reference trading range for polyethylene (L2601) is 6600 - 6900, and for polypropylene (PP2601) is 6300 - 6600. [17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Valuation and Cost: OPEC+'s plan may support the bottom of crude oil prices. WTI crude oil dropped 3.95%, Brent crude oil dropped 3.76%, coal price remained unchanged, methanol rose 1.07%, ethylene dropped 3.31%, propylene rose 3.85%, and propane rose 5.54%. [16] - Supply: PE capacity utilization rate was 83.24%, up 0.12% month - on - month and 1.46% year - on - year, but 11.06% lower than the 5 - year average. PP capacity utilization rate was 77.92%, down 0.12% month - on - month but 4.70% higher than last year, and 12.01% lower than the 5 - year average. The polyethylene 2601 contract has only 400,000 tons of planned capacity, while the polypropylene 2601 contract has 1.45 million tons. [16] - Imports and Exports: In October, domestic PE imports were 1.0112 million tons, down 1.07% month - on - month and 16.22% year - on - year; PP imports were 169,200 tons, down 12.41% month - on - month and year - on - year. PE exports were 83,300 tons, down 16.04% month - on - month but up 35.30% year - on - year; PP exports were 206,400 tons, down 0.83% month - on - month but up 19.83% year - on - year. [16] - Demand: The downstream operating rate of PE was 44.1%, down 1.67% month - on - month but up 3.04% year - on - year. The downstream operating rate of PP was 53.83%, up 2.30% month - on - month and 3.20% year - on - year. It is the seasonal peak season, and the overall operating rate has reached the same level as in previous years, with good demand for PE agricultural film raw materials. [17] - Inventory: PE production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.67% month - on - month but increased by 14.70% compared with the same period last year; PE trader inventory decreased by 10.69% month - on - month and 5.10% compared with the same period last year. PP production enterprise inventory decreased by 5.78% month - on - month but increased by 24.38% compared with the same period last year; PP trader inventory decreased by 3.85% month - on - month but increased by 65.14%; PP port inventory increased by 0.31% month - on - month and 10.58% compared with the same period last year. [17] - Strategy Recommendation: Go long on the LL - PP spread at low prices [18] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Data Presentation: The report presents multiple charts related to PE and PP, including the term structure, main contract prices, basis, 1 - 5 spreads, trading volume, open interest, registered warrants, and the spread between different varieties, etc. [34][37][42][44][50][53][59][66][69] 3.3 Cost - side - Price Fluctuations: Crude oil prices are bottom - oscillating. WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, coal, methanol, ethylene, propylene, and propane prices have different degrees of change. The report also shows the price trends of LPG, PDH production margin, and other related products. [16][83] 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - side - Raw Materials and Capacity: The report shows the proportion of PE production raw materials and the annual change in capacity. In 2025, a number of PE production projects have been put into production, with a total of 4.63 million tons of capacity put into production and 400,000 tons of planned but un - put - into - production capacity. [133][135] - Capacity Utilization and Maintenance: The capacity utilization rate of PE and the amount of production reduction due to maintenance are presented through charts. [136][138] 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - Inventory Situation: The report shows the trends of PE total inventory, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, and trader inventory through charts. [144][145][147] - Imports and Exports: The monthly and cumulative import and export volumes of PE are shown, and the export volume of LLDPE is also presented. [150][152][155] 3.6 Polyethylene Demand - side - Demand Structure: The downstream demand structure of PE includes packaging film, hollow products, pipes, injection molding, agricultural film, etc., and the terminal demand structure is also presented. [162][164] - Operating Rate and Orders: The report shows the overall downstream operating rate of PE, the operating rate of each sub - industry, and the inventory and order - related data of some products. [166][167][172] 3.7 Polypropylene Supply - side - Raw Materials and Capacity: The proportion of PP production raw materials and the annual change in capacity are shown. In 2025, a number of PP production projects have been put into production, with a total of 4.95 million tons of capacity put into production and 1.45 million tons of planned but un - put - into - production capacity. [188][189] - Capacity Utilization and Maintenance: The capacity utilization rate of PP and the amount of production reduction due to maintenance are presented through charts. [190][192] 3.8 Polypropylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - Inventory Situation: The report shows the trends of PP total inventory, two - oil inventory, trader inventory, and port inventory through charts. [197][198] - Exports: The monthly and cumulative export volumes of PP are shown, and the export destinations of PP are also presented. The export volume to Southeast Asia is gradually recovering from the impact of the "trade war". [199][204] 3.9 Polypropylene Demand - side - Demand Structure: The downstream demand structure of PP includes drawing, high - low melt copolymerization, injection molding, BOPP, etc., and the terminal demand structure is also presented. [210][212] - Operating Rate and Orders: The report shows the overall downstream operating rate of PP, the operating rate of each sub - industry, and the inventory and order - related data of some products. [214][218][222]