沥青月报：缓慢寻底-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the valuation of asphalt may decline in the second half of the year. The current operating rate of independent refineries is at a low level with limited downward space. The combination of the return of major refinery capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period is expected to restrict the upward space of asphalt valuation, and the weak oscillation of crude oil at the cost end will also limit the upward space of asphalt's single - sided price [15]. - In the short term, the weakness of asphalt persists, but the marginal contradiction between supply and demand has eased, so it is recommended to wait and see [16]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The price trend of the asphalt main contract from January to December 2025 is affected by supply - demand and cost factors. There are fluctuations such as supply - demand increase, cost decrease, and supply - demand decrease at different times [13][14]. - Mid - term Impact Factor Assessment: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, major refineries are expected to resume some operations, restricting the upward movement of asphalt valuation, while independent refineries will remain relatively sluggish in the short - to - medium term. On the demand side, the start - up rate has improved slightly compared to previous years, but overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure peak season. For the cost factor, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the central oscillation range is expected to move down slightly [15]. - Short - term Factor Assessment: The start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is rising, and overall imports are strong; demand - side sub - items are weak, and downstream shipments are dull; the inventory shows difficulty in destocking; the crude oil cost is expected to stop falling and stabilize, entering a weak oscillation phase [16]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price: The report presents the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions from 2021 to 2025 [19][22][26][30]. - Basis Trend: It shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2021 to 2025 [32]. - Term Structure: It includes the term structure of asphalt, the price differences between different contracts (such as 03 - 05, 04 - 05, 03 - 06), and their historical trends from 2022 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.3 Supply Side - Capacity Utilization and Profit: It shows the trends of asphalt capacity utilization, production profit in Shandong, and the relationship between asphalt profit and crude oil price from 2021 to 2025 [44][46]. - Imports: It includes the import volume of asphalt, diluted asphalt, import profit from different regions (such as South China - Singapore, East China - South Korea), and the cumulative import volume from different countries (South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia) from 2021 to 2025 [54][56][61]. - Valuation Ratio: It presents the trends of the fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent ratios from 2021 to 2025 [64]. - Refinery Profit: It shows the refining profit trends of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit trends of petroleum coke from 2021 to 2025 [67][70]. 3.4 Inventory - Domestic Inventory: It includes the trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [75]. - Warehouse Receipts: It shows the trends of asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main asphalt contract from 2021 to 2025 [78]. - Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price: It presents the relationships between inventory, profit, and price [82]. 3.5 Demand Side - Enterprise Shipment Volume: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, North China sample enterprises from 2023 to 2025 [86]. - Downstream Start - up Rate: It includes the start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2021 to 2025 [97][100]. - Highway Investment: It shows the cumulative highway construction investment, monthly transportation fiscal expenditure, and their relationship with asphalt demand from 2021 to 2025 [102][109]. - Road - related Machinery: It includes the monthly sales volumes of road rollers and excavators, the monthly working hours of excavators, and their relationship with highway construction investment from 2021 to 2025 [114][117]. - Related Consumption: It shows the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management, as well as the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds from 2021 to 2025 [120][121]. 3.6 Related Indicators - Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility: It shows the trends of asphalt trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility from 2021 to 2025 [128][129][131]. 3.7 Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - Crude Oil Industrial Chain: It involves exploration and extraction links [135][136]. - Asphalt Industrial Chain: From a production process perspective, asphalt can be divided into five types, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used for road construction. According to its use, it can be divided into three types, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [139].