锡月报：短期供给扰动，预计锡价偏强震荡-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In November, tin prices continued to strengthen under the influence of supply disturbances at the mine end, reaching a new high for the year. Although the current demand in the tin market is weak, with low downstream inventories and limited bargaining power, supply - side disturbances are the determining factor for short - term prices. Therefore, it is more likely that tin prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term [11][13]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In October, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was slightly alleviated. However, the recent deterioration of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has disrupted tin ore transportation, raising market concerns. In October, the import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632 physical tons (equivalent to about 4,938 metal tons), a year - on - year decrease of 15.74% and a month - on - month increase of 43.36% [12]. - Supply side: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, has been slow, with low export volumes. Smelting enterprises in Yunnan still face a shortage of raw materials, and their short - term operating rates are stable but lack further upward momentum. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap materials, the supply of crude tin is insufficient, and refined tin production remains at a low level. Overall, it is expected that the overall operating level of smelters in the two regions will be difficult to further improve in the short term [11][12]. - Demand side: Although the consumption in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate is slightly weak, the long - term demand expectations brought by emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers support tin prices. In the peak season, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight recovery in October. In October, the domestic integrated circuit output was 4.18 billion pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.7%. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. Recently, due to the large short - term price increase, downstream acceptance is limited, and inventories have increased significantly. This week, the total social inventory of tin ingots in major Chinese regions was 8,245 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last week [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented [17][19][20]. 3.3 Cost Side No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including the monthly output of Chinese tin ore, import volume, tin concentrate price, and tin concentrate processing fee [22][24][26]. 3.4 Supply Side No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin production and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export [28][30][32][36][38][39]. 3.5 Demand Side - The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [45]. - No specific text analysis content provided for other indicators, only relevant data graphs are presented, including domestic computer and smartphone production, output of household appliances (washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, color TVs), China's photovoltaic cell output and photovoltaic installation, domestic key enterprise tin - plated strip production, domestic PVC monthly output, downstream solder enterprise operating rate, and domestic apparent tin consumption [42][44][47][49][51][53][55][57]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance (Inventory) No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including Chinese social inventory and LME inventory [59][60][61].