股指月报：关注12月重要会议，逢低做多-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After a previous continuous rise and influenced by the adjustment of overseas US stocks, market risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index faces certain uncertainties. However, in the long - run, the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short - term, focus on the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December, and in the medium - to - long - term, the main idea is to buy on dips [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Important News: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are upcoming; the National Space Administration has established a commercial space department; the World Gold Council expects a 15% - 30% increase in gold prices in 2026; the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on December 5, 2025 [10]. - Economic and Corporate Earnings: In October 2025, industrial added value grew 4.9% year - on - year, retail sales grew 2.9%, and fixed - asset investment decreased 1.7%. The November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2. M1 and M2 growth rates decreased in October, and the social financing increment was 816.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease. The export in September 2025 decreased year - on - year, and housing prices in all cities declined in October [10]. - Interest Rate and Credit Environment: The 10Y treasury bond rate and credit bond rate rebounded this month, the credit spread slightly converged, and liquidity remained loose [10]. - Trading Strategy Recommendations: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term as its valuation is at a moderately low level and it has a long - term discount; hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new interest - rate cut cycle may benefit high - dividend assets [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Spot Market: The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3888.60 points, with a turnover of 1613.88 billion yuan and a decline of 1.67%. The Shenzhen Component Index was at 12984.08 points, with a turnover of 2177.93 billion yuan and a decline of 2.95%. Other major indices also showed varying degrees of decline [14]. - Futures Market: All major futures contracts, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, showed declines in points and varying degrees of decrease in prices [15]. 3.3 Economic and Corporate Earnings - Economic Indicators: The real GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.8%. The November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2. In October 2025, consumption growth was 2.9%, export growth was - 1.1%, and investment growth was - 1.7%. Manufacturing investment grew 2.7%, real - estate investment was - 14.7%, and infrastructure investment was - 0.1% [34][37][40]. - Corporate Earnings: In the Q3 2025 report, the year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 1.24%, and the net profit growth rate was 3.89%, both rebounding compared to the semi - annual report [43]. 3.4 Interest Rate and Credit Environment - Interest Rates: The 10Y treasury bond rate and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate showed certain trends. Liquidity remained loose, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [46][50]. - Credit Environment: In October 2025, M1 growth was 6.2% and M2 growth was 8.2%. The social financing increment was 816.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease due to pre - issued government bonds and reduced household loans [58]. 3.5 Funding - Fund Inflow: This week, about 121.56 billion shares of new equity - oriented funds were established, and the margin trading balance increased by about 100.1 billion yuan, with a new balance of 2466.478 billion yuan [64][67]. - Fund Outflow: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 82.87 billion yuan, and there were 2 IPO approvals [70]. 3.6 Valuation - P/E Ratio: The P/E ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai 50 was 11.86, the CSI 300 was 14.02, the CSI 500 was 32.35, and the CSI 1000 was 46.48. - P/B Ratio: The P/B ratio (LF) of the Shanghai 50 was 1.30, the CSI 300 was 1.46, the CSI 500 was 2.21, and the CSI 1000 was 2.44 [74].