工业硅&多晶硅月报：工业硅震荡跟随，多晶硅仓单与平台公司博弈并存，宽幅波动-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in a range, with its price likely to be influenced by the sentiment of funds in other new - energy products. The supply - demand imbalance is not prominent, with both supply and demand being weak. [14] - Polysilicon prices are predicted to fluctuate widely in December, with near - term contracts being relatively strong. The pressure of inventory accumulation before the year is difficult to ease, and there is a high risk of instability in the near - term contracts due to delivery games. [17] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industrial Silicon: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9800 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 9000 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 100 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the production was 36.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44,700 tons. The cumulative production from January to November was 3.6993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 672,900 tons or 15.39%. The inventory at the end of November was 481,400 tons. [13] - Polysilicon: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of N - type re - fed polysilicon was 52.3 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 0.05 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense polysilicon was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous month. In November, the production was 114,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,400 tons. The cumulative production from January to November was 1.1897 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.07%. The inventory at the end of November was about 281,000 - 282,100 tons. [15][16] - Organosilicon: In November, the DMC production was 209,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 86,000 tons. The cumulative production from January to November was 2.2722 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.58%. [13] - Silicon - aluminum Alloy: From January to October, the cumulative production of aluminum alloy was 15.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.542 million tons or 19.23%. [13] - Export: From January to October, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon in China was 598,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 97,000 tons or 1.66%. [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Industrial Silicon: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9800 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 9000 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 100 yuan/ton. [22] - Polysilicon: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of N - type re - fed polysilicon was 52.3 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 0.05 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense polysilicon was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous month. [25] 3.3 Industrial Silicon - Total Production: In November 2025, the production of industrial silicon was 360,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44,700 tons. The cumulative production from January to November was 3.6993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 672,900 tons or 15.39%. [30] - Production in Main Producing Areas: The report shows the production trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu. [32][34] - Production Cost: As of November 28, 2025, the average electricity price in Yunnan increased by 0.13 yuan/kWh month - on - month, and in Sichuan by 0.09 yuan/kWh month - on - month; the silicon stone price remained stable month - on - month. The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8504.17 yuan/ton, in Yunnan 9766.67 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 9720.00 yuan/ton. [43][46] - Visible Inventory: At the end of November, the industrial silicon inventory was 481,400 tons, including 263,400 tons in factory inventory, 185,000 tons in market inventory, and 33,000 tons in registered warehouse receipts (with concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts). [49] 3.4 Polysilicon - Production: In November, the production of polysilicon was 114,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,400 tons. The cumulative production from January to November was 1.1897 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.07%. [54] - Capacity Utilization and Scheduled Production: In November, the capacity utilization rate of polysilicon was 44.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.91 percentage points. The expected production in December was 113,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease. [57] - Inventory: At the end of November, the polysilicon inventory was about 281,000 - 282,100 tons, with factory inventory accumulating. [60] - Cost and Profit: At the end of November, the production cost of polysilicon was 41,640.63 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 8464.63 yuan/ton, with relatively good profits. [63] - Silicon Wafer: In November, the production of silicon wafers was 54.37GW, a month - on - month decrease of 6.28GW. The cumulative production from January to November was 603.19GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.35%. The inventory at the end of November was 19.5GW, a month - on - month increase. The predicted production in December was 45.7GW, a significant month - on - month decrease. [66][69] - Cell: In November, the production of cells was 55.61GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66GW. The cumulative production from January to November was 622.72GW, a year - on - year increase of 3.59%. The inventory at the end of November was 7.63GW. The expected production in December was 48.72GW, a significant month - on - month decrease. [74][77] - Module: In November, the production of modules was 46.9GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2GW. The cumulative production from January to November was 524.5GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.13%. The inventory at the end of November was 30.5GW, a month - on - month decrease. The expected production in December was 39.99GW, a decrease compared to November. [82][85] 3.5 Organosilicon - Production: In November, the DMC production was 209,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 86,000 tons. The cumulative production from January to November was 2.2722 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.58%. [92] - Price and Profit: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of organosilicon was 13,200 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 2200 yuan/ton. The DMC gross profit was 1128.13 yuan/ton. [95] - Inventory: At the end of November, the DMC inventory was 44,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 600 tons. [98] 3.6 Silicon - aluminum Alloy and Export - Aluminum Alloy: As of November 28, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,910 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 190 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21,330 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 10 yuan/ton. From January to October, the cumulative production of aluminum alloy was 15.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.542 million tons or 19.23%. At the end of November, the capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60.2%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.5%. [103][106] - Export: From January to October, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon in China was 598,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 97,000 tons or 1.66%. [109]